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国脉科技(002093)公司深度研究:5G规划设计难度提升 公司转型升级即将启航

國泰君安 ·  Dec 10, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Guide to this report: The difficulty of 5G planning and design has greatly increased beyond market expectations, industry sentiment has improved marginally, 5G investment cycle planning and design comes first, and investment points for the company's planning and design business expectations and restoration are key points: maintaining an “increased holding” rating. As the company's communications business slimmed down in the second half of the year, the company's 2018 performance faced short-term pain. We downgraded the company's 2018-2020 revenue forecast to be 1,029 million yuan (-26.9%), 952 million yuan (-32%), and 1,078 million yuan (-27.6%) from when it was first covered, and net profit was revised down to 169 million yuan (-24.5%), 222 million yuan (-26%), and 316 million yuan (-18%). EPS per share is expected to be lowered to 0.17 yuan (-22.7%). $0.22 (-26.7%) and $0.31 (-18.4%). The average value of the corresponding results of the two valuation methods was selected, and the target price was lowered to 8.51 yuan to maintain the “increase in holdings” rating. The increase in prosperity in the planning and design industry has exceeded market expectations. The 5G industry chain network planning and design has taken precedence, and the difficulty of 5G planning and design has increased, and performance is expected to experience explosive growth. The planning and design industry shows cyclical fluctuations with operators' capital expenses. As a leading local private design institute, the company is expected to further expand its market share in 2019 with management and qualification advantages in the future. The company is in good financial condition, has the potential to reevaluate its assets, and has a certain margin of safety. Guomai Technology IoT Industrial Park has a large number of park infrastructure assets and sufficient cash flow. In the future, it has the ability to acquire back-end application companies in the 5G industry chain. catalysts. In the first half of 2019, 5G license issuance and trial commercial-driven construction volume are expected to increase; in the second half of 2019, 5G-related operator planning and design orders are expected to increase due to tenders. Risk warning. The 5G construction cycle falls short of expectations; there is a risk that operators will implement a general contracting system for the planning and design industry; and macroeconomic real estate policy regulation has had an adverse impact on the operation of the company's science park.

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