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茂业通信(000889)季报点评:内生+外延 持续成长打造国内领先的云通信场景运营者

天風證券 ·  Nov 27, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Incidents: The company released its three-quarter report on October 30. Operating income for the first three quarters was 2,215 billion yuan, up 57.67% year on year; net profit attributable to owners of the parent company was 161 million yuan, down 8.98% year on year; basic earnings per share was 0.26 yuan, down 9.74% year on year. Among them, the operating income for the 2018 Q3 quarter was 841 million yuan, up 56.69% year on year; net profit attributable to owners of the parent company was 51.6207 million yuan, down 25.84% year on year; and basic earnings per share was 0.081 yuan, down 27.61% year on year. Comment: Successful transformation of communication services, the company on the new circuit has steadily developed information communication transmission business, while accelerating the expansion of financial informatization services (1) At the end of 2014, the company began continuous asset restructuring. At the end of 2014, the company first acquired Genesis Manway to become the first-tier enterprise SMS service provider in China. Genesis Manway's performance on gambling in 2014, 2015 and 2016 was 600 million yuan, respectively; after the end of the three-year gambling period, it continued to grow at a high level, achieving net profit of 121 million yuan in 2017; In 2018, the company's corporate SMS delivery volume continued to develop healthily, but due to the operator's recent increase in channel tariffs, the gross margin of the company's corporate SMS business declined. (2) In the first half of 2015, Changshi Communications was acquired with cash and became the first-tier network maintenance service provider in China. Changshi Communications valued at 1.2 billion yuan. Changshi Communications promised the company that net profit after deduction in 2015-2017 would not be less than 90 million yuan, 108 million yuan, and 129 million yuan respectively. The company's performance promise has been fulfilled. In 2018, the company's business revenue continued to grow rapidly, and the profit level remained stable; (3) in 2018, the company continued to expand new business categories at a price of 1.48 billion dollars, completed mergers and acquisitions of Jiahua Information, and launched new businesses such as financial services outsourcing. At present, the company has achieved 100% shareholding. Established in 2010, Jiahua Information's main business is mobile information transmission business, financial service outsourcing business, and other businesses. Jiahua Information promised net profit of $134 million, $167 million and $201 million for 2018-2020, respectively. Profit forecast and investment recommendations: The company's restructuring business has been completed, and a successful transformation from traditional retail and real estate industries to communication service industries has been achieved. Currently, the company is positioned as a leading cloud communication scenario operator in China. It will use the acquisition of Jiahua Information in 2018 as an opportunity to integrate Genesis Manway and Jiahua Information SMS services to improve cloud communication capabilities, and at the same time combine the newly acquired cloud communication services of external call centers, and use big data and artificial intelligence technology to provide capacity output for financial enterprises and create a leading domestic cloud communication scenario operator. We are optimistic about the company's medium- to long-term development. Net profit for 2018-2020 is expected to be 2.6 billion yuan, 360 million yuan, and 450 million yuan respectively, corresponding to PE 31, 22, and 18 times. For the first time, coverage is increased, and the target price is 13.5 yuan. Risk warning: Listed companies confirm the risk of greater goodwill and impairment of goodwill, risk of poor asset integration, and transition risk of changing financial leaders. The SMS industry faces industry competition to further reduce gross profit margins

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