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杭州园林(300649):中标EPC大项目 成长逻辑不断兑现

國海證券 ·  Dec 10, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Incident: The company issued an announcement on December 6, stating: The company won the bid for the EPC general contract project supporting Tongjianhu Avenue, with a project amount of 403 million yuan. Our comments on this are as follows: Investment points: winning the bid for the EPC project, sufficient contracts in hand, and high performance growth. The company won the bid for the Tongjianhu Avenue supporting EPC general contract project. The construction content is: Tongjian Lake flood control and drainage ecological restoration project (total area 4.66 square kilometers), including water system, transportation, landscape, greening, water supply and drainage, electricity, and weak electricity. This project, with an amount of 403 million yuan, is the largest project EPC project received since the company went public. On the one hand, it can significantly increase the company's performance, and on the other hand, it can also increase the company's popularity and help the company obtain more orders. Considering that the total number of contracts the company had in hand in June was about 700 million yuan (including design business of about 500 million yuan and EPC engineering business of about 200 million yuan), plus 403 million yuan of new contracts signed this time, it is estimated that the total number of contracts currently in hand for the company is estimated to be around 1.1 billion yuan, and the company's balance ratio is only 27.06% (as of 2018Q3), and there is still a lot of room for improvement. At the same time, in November 2017, the bank signed a credit line of 10 billion yuan. Sufficient on-hand orders and capital provided a guarantee for the company's high growth in future performance. In the first three quarters of 2018, The company's attributable net profit increased by 69.02% after deduction. We believe the high growth is sustainable. Moving from design to EPC, the growth logic continues to reflect that the company has two grade A qualifications for landscape architecture and construction design. It has formed a good brand image with works such as the West Lake Comprehensive Conservation Project, Xixi National Wetland Park, the “G20 Hangzhou Summit”, and the “BRICS Xiamen Summit” core landscape design, etc., and is a leading enterprise in the landscape design industry. While consolidating the design business, the company gives full play to the overall entry advantages of the design business and actively expands downstream EPC, engineering and other businesses. The advantages are obvious (design business generally only accounts for about 3-5% of the general contracting scale of engineering projects, and expanding EPC business can greatly increase revenue levels and open up new growth space). Since 2017, the company has successfully undertaken integrated design and construction services such as Boao Agricultural National Park Phase I Project General Contracting (EPC), Boao Corridor Landscape Enhancement Project (EPC), and Boao Binhai Avenue Greening and Upgrading Project (EPC), etc., and supporting EPC projects for Tongjianhu Avenue. EPC's business is developing smoothly. Whether it is order acquisition or performance growth, the growth logic continues to be implemented, and we are optimistic about the long-term development of the company. Profit forecast and investment rating: Maintaining the company's “overweight” rating. We are optimistic about the company's brand advantages and the growth space brought by the expansion of the EPC business. Combined with the company's three-quarter report and new orders, we slightly lowered the company's 2018 performance and slightly increased the 2019-2020 performance. The company's 2018-2020 EPS is expected to be 0.52, 0.76, and 0.94 yuan respectively, corresponding to the current stock price PE of 47, 32, and 26 times. Combined with current industry and market conditions, we maintain the company's “increased holdings” rating. Risk warning: risk of project expansion falling short of expectations, risk of significant increase in accounts receivable, uncertain risk of expansion into the engineering sector, risk of rising interest rates, risk of contract execution falling short of expectations, downside macroeconomic risk.

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