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昂立教育(600661)点评:中金系拟继续增持 股权存在变数

中泰證券 ·  Nov 15, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Key investment events: The company announced that CICC Group and its co-actors plan to increase their holdings of listed companies through centralized bidding transactions, bulk transactions, and agreement transfers within the next six months. They intend to increase their shareholding by no less than 0.5% of the company's total share capital and no more than 5% of the company's total share capital. Comment: The company's controlling shareholders are variable. Up to now, the largest shareholder, Jiaotong University Industrial Group, and the People's Jiaotong University Enterprise Management Center, which acts in concert with it, hold a total of 22.65% of shares, and the China Financial Group holds a total of 21.18% of the shares. If the CICC increases its shareholding by more than 1.47% of the total share capital this time, it is expected to surpass Jiaotong University to become the controlling shareholder of the company. The school-enterprise reform rules have yet to be introduced. On May 11, the second meeting of the Central Committee on Comprehensive and Deepening Reform pointed out that for changes in the enterprise system belonging to colleges and universities, it is necessary to adhere to the direction of reform of the state-owned assets management system and carry out comprehensive clean-up and regulation of enterprises belonging to colleges and universities. However, at present, no specific rules for school-enterprise reform have been introduced. CICC Group has rich industries. CICC Group was founded in 1995 and has now entered various fields such as real estate development, mining development, health care, cultural tourism, energy investment, information industry, and capital investment. If the China Finance Department eventually becomes the controlling shareholder of the company, its industries are expected to collaborate with the company's business, help the company develop, and have a positive effect on improving the company's operating efficiency and performance. Investment suggestion: The China Finance Department plans to continue to increase its holdings. There are variables among the controlling shareholders of the company. The entry of private capital is expected to optimize the equity structure, which is conducive to the long-term improvement of the company's management efficiency. The profit forecast for 2018/19/20 of earnings per share of 0.41/0.53/0.63 yuan is maintained for the time being. The current market value is 6.1 billion yuan, and the corresponding valuation is 52x/40x/34x. We are optimistic about the positive effects of equity changes on the company's future management efficiency and performance improvement, and maintain the “buy” rating. Risk warning: The expansion of training outlets and enrollment falls short of expectations; the impact of relevant policies of training institutions on the progress of expansion; the expansion of vocational education, international education, and early childhood education business falls short of expectations.

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