Events:
Del shares released three quarterly results of 2018: the company's cumulative operating income in the first three quarters of 2018 was 2.8 billion yuan, + 76% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit attributed to shareholders of listed companies was 149 million yuan, + 63% compared with the same period last year. After deduction, the net profit of shareholders of listed companies is 145 million yuan, + 68% year-on-year. Among them, the operating income in the third quarter was 960 million yuan, + 21% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 50 million yuan, + 78.9% year-on-year, and 48 million yuan after deducting non-listed company shareholders, + 72% year-on-year.
Main points of investment:
The third-quarter results are in the upper limit of the previous forecast, leading the automotive industry in the growth rate of 21% in the third quarter of 2018, deducting 72% growth in non-net profit, and the base figure for the same period in the third quarter is complete and CCI, the growth rate has a clear guiding significance. As the increment in the past two years mainly comes from new products and new orders, the company's electric pumps and gearbox pumps began to release gradually in the second half of last year, and the release of orders in the second quarter of this year further accelerated, driving growth away from the decline of the domestic automobile industry, and the performance growth rate far exceeded the overall level of the automobile industry.
The gross profit margin fluctuates slightly, and the expense rate can be controlled as a whole. During the reporting period, the company's gross profit margin during the reporting period is 29.1%, year-on-year-1.36pctjue Q3 gross profit margin is 27.9%, year-on-year-0.95pct, month-on-month-0.83pct. The total expense rate of the three items is 21.97%, compared with the same period last year-0.05pct. Equity incentive amortization in 2019 will be about 27 million yuan less than this year. At the same time, with self-raised funds gradually replaced by pre-invested investment projects, the pressure on financial expenses has also been greatly improved, and the certainty of performance growth next year is strong.
Earnings forecast and investment rating: maintain the buy rating as the sales volume of downstream customers is affected by the slowdown in industry growth, and the full-year performance is lower than the original forecast. The company downgraded the company's 2018 and 2019 EPS to 2.14 EPS in 2020, and the corresponding share price PE was 3.87 times in 16-12-9. The valuation relative to performance growth still does not fully reflect the growth, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk hints: the risk that the expansion of new products is less than expected; the risk that sales in the automobile market fall short of expectations; the risk that the performance of the acquisition target is not as expected; and the risk that the construction of fund-raising projects is not as expected.