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海辰药业(300584)点评:NMS研发实力雄厚 赴港上市提升估值

國聯證券 ·  Nov 8, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Incident: The company announced the situation related to the R&D pipeline of the Italian NMS Group: The NMS Group has established 13 new drug product lines, covering major diseases such as tumors and immuno-oncology. Nine varieties have been authorized for transfer or cooperation with foreign countries. Of these, 1 variety has been approved for marketing, and 1 variety has been applied for as a new drug. Investment highlights: NMS Group is the world's leading comprehensive R&D group dedicated to the field of cancer treatment. NMS Group was founded in 1965 and has a history of developing innovative drugs for more than 50 years. It has rich R&D experience in discovering kinase and antibody-conjugated drug platforms. After the acquisition, the Chinese representative Shao Ying served as Group CEO. She has served as Vice President of R&D of Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical and Director of CDE's New Drug Evaluation Department, etc., with extensive experience in R&D, pharmaceutical administration and management. The Group has more than 300 highly educated and experienced researchers, 63 PhDs, more than 1,200 patents, 250,000 structural molecular structure libraries, 80,000 of which have Nerviano's exclusive patents, and the cell bank stores 500 different human tumor cell lines. The Group is researching a wide variety of products and plans to go to the Hong Kong stock market for financing and listing. The company has established 13 new drug product lines around oncology and immuno-oncology segments. Among them, Danusertib has entered phase II clinical trials, NMS-P088 submitted clinical trial applications in October 2018, and NMS-P29310 is expected to submit clinical trial applications in the first quarter of 2019. In terms of external licensing and cooperation, there are currently a total of 9 varieties. Among them, Encorafenib was approved by the US FDA on June 28, 2018, and received a 2% sales commission after the product was launched; Entractinib (entrectinib) is in the new drug application stage and is expected to be listed within the year or early 2019, and is expected to withdraw sales commission of about 10% of sales. Furthermore, in order to ensure that NMS Group's subsequent projects proceed step by step, it plans to go to the Hong Kong stock market for financing and listing, which is expected to further increase the company's valuation. Maintain a “Recommended” rating. We maintained the previous forecast. The company's 2018-2020 EPS was 0.71 yuan, 0.92 yuan and 1.16 yuan respectively, and PE was 32 times, 25 times and 20 times, respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating. Risk warning: product sales fall short of expectations; product price reduction pressure; mergers and acquisitions fall short of expectations, etc.

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