Leading enterprises in sea cucumber industry with outstanding competitiveness
The company is the first listed company with mariculture and processing as its main business, in which sea cucumber is the core product of the company, which contributes most of the company's performance. The company has formed a "seedling-nurturance-processing-marketing" integrated sea cucumber culture system, which is the core competitiveness of the company. At present, the company has a seedling breeding base of 350000 square meters and 300000 offshore seedling cages, which can achieve complete self-sufficiency of seedlings. At the same time, it has more than 50,000 mu of sea cucumber aquaculture base, and the annual theoretical fishing of fresh sea cucumbers can reach 5000 tons. In addition, the company actively develops peripheral products to create new profit growth points. The company actively responds to the national call to develop offshore fishing to achieve the steady development of traditional marine fishing.
Capacity clearing superimposed natural disasters, sea cucumber industry ushered in an upward cycle
China's sea cucumber aquaculture industry has a strong periodicity. After the rapid expansion from 2003 to 2011, the industry has entered the adjustment cycle. We believe that the current industry adjustment has basically ended and is about to usher in a two-to three-year upward cycle. The main reasons are: 1) returning to public consumption, the demand has bottomed out; 2) the production capacity of the industry has experienced four or five years of adjustment; 2) the north has been hot for two consecutive years, and sea cucumbers and ginseng seedlings have successively died in a large area. Combined with the amount of sea cucumber seedlings and the sea cucumber culture cycle, we think that the industry will usher in an upward cycle in the next two years.
Be in charge: fully benefit from the prosperity of the industry, the performance is expected to be greatly thickened
The company's sea cucumber seedlings are all self-sufficient, and the cost can be controlled. The company's output has been around 4000 tons in recent years, and price is the core factor affecting its performance. It is estimated that the average sales price of sea cucumbers in the fourth quarter of 18 years will reach 180 yuan / KG. The company will catch about 2000 tons in autumn, of which 1200 tons will be exported in the fourth quarter. The price of sea cucumbers continues to be strong in 19 years, which is expected to be 160yuan / KG in the first half of 1919 and 180yuan / KG in the second half of the year. The company maintains annual sales of about 4000 tons. The company's performance is highly flexible and will usher in an upward profit cycle.
Fully benefit from the upward cycle of the industry and be optimistic about the company
The sea cucumber industry will usher in a two-to three-year upward cycle. The company is an integrated leader in sea cucumber farming and will fully benefit from the upward prosperity of the industry. We estimate that the EPS of the company from 2018 to 2020 will be 0.09,0.17 and 0.21 yuan respectively. With reference to the historical valuation level and absolute valuation of the company, we think that the reasonable valuation of the company in 19 years should be 20 times, corresponding to the target price of 3.40 yuan. Be optimistic about the growth of the company, cover it for the first time, and give it a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: natural disaster risk, industry competition aggravating risk, price rising less than expected risk
