Performance fell short of expectations. The profit forecast was lowered. The company achieved revenue of $3.266 billion (+4.2%) for the first three quarters, and net profit attributable to mother/net profit of $495/495 million (-19.8%/-19.0%), respectively, below market and our expectations. We lowered the company's profit forecast. We expect the company's EPS to be 0.68/0.72 yuan in 2018-2019 (1.14/1.35 yuan before adjustment), and introduced an EPS of 0.87 yuan in 2020. Referring to the 2018 average P/E of comparable companies, the company was given 12-14xP/E in 2018, corresponding to a target price of 8.16-9.52 yuan/share, and given an “increase in weight” rating. Revenue/gross margin for the third quarter of a single quarter was under pressure, and repayment improvements were evident. The 18Q3 company achieved revenue of 969 million yuan (-38.9% YoY), net profit attributable to mother of 142 million yuan (-52.8% YoY), and net profit of 143 million yuan (-51.4% YoY). The company's gross margin for the third quarter was 28.89%, down 4.5 pct year on year and 0.6 pct higher than month on month. We determine that the year-on-year decline in revenue and gross margin is mainly due to the fact that atmospheric management in the power sector is nearing its end, and the share of revenue from desulfurization and denitrification businesses with high gross margins has declined. Payments improved in 18Q3, and the company received 1.2 billion dollars in cash from the sale of goods and services, with a revenue ratio of 124% (+54.8pct year on year); the payout ratio declined. In 18Q3, the company purchased goods and received 340 million yuan in cash for labor payments, the payout ratio was 35%, a decrease of 0.1 pct year on year. The balance ratio in 18Q3 was 57.7% (-3.78pct year-on-year, -2.36pct month-on-month), and the balance ratio declined. Non-electric atmospheric control is taking off. The company is expected to benefit from the publication of the “Three-Year Action Plan to Win the Blue Sky Defense War” in June '18. The ultra-low emission transformation in the non-electricity sector welcomes favorable policies. If the national non-electricity industry reaches special emission limits in the next five years, the demand for non-electric atmospheric treatment is expected to exceed 100 billion dollars. The company focuses on technical reserves. According to the company's semi-annual report, it has obtained some market orders in the fields of steel, coking, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, etc. In the future, as orders in the field of non-electricity treatment continue to be released, the company's technical reserves and industry reputation for atmospheric treatment are expected to help the company obtain more orders, and it is expected that the future will fully benefit from the rapid expansion of the non-electric treatment market. The profit forecast was lowered to give an “increase in holdings” rating due to the decline in the company's electricity sector orders, the expansion of orders in the non-electricity sector fell short of expectations, and the company's performance fell short of expectations. We lowered the company's profit forecast. The company's EPS for 2018-2019 was 0.68/0.72 yuan (1.14/1.35 yuan before adjustment), and the introduction of EPS in 2020 was 0.87 yuan. Referring to the 2018 average P/E of comparable companies, the company was given 12-14xP/E in 2018, corresponding to a target price of 8.16-9.52 yuan/share, and given an “increase in weight” rating. Risk warning: Electricity prices for desulfurization and denitrification subsidies have been lowered, and the increase in EPC orders for non-electric air treatment is lower than expected.
清新环境(002573)季报点评:业绩低于预期 期待非电放量
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