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跨境通(002640)季报点评:Q3淡季收入增长超预期 精细化整合推动经营质量好转

招商證券 ·  Nov 1, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Starting from the data and technology side, the company's core competitiveness built at the logistics system, supply chain system, own brand system, intelligent customer service, and intelligent marketing system gradually became apparent, driving the company's growth to accelerate in the third quarter. However, with the arrival of the Q4 e-commerce season, the company's rapid growth is expected to continue. Furthermore, the effects of the company's refined management are gradually being reflected. With the steady advancement of website platformization, localization, and supplier delivery systems, it is expected that the results of cash flow and inventory optimization will be maintained. As the Q4 industry gradually enters the peak season, the growth rate of GMV, the company's main electronics and clothing website, has increased since October. Without considering amortization of the fifth equity incentive fee, net profit is expected to reach 1.2 billion dollars for the whole year, an increase of 60-70% over the previous year (a comparable increase of 45-50%). The current market value is 16.3 billion, corresponding to 18PE14X/19PE10X. The valuation is not high, so the bottom can be a long-term layout. Under the influence of a low base, Q3 revenue growth slightly exceeded expectations, and profit continued to grow rapidly. In the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of 15.791 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.66%. Excluding Youyi e-commerce and consolidated revenue of 4.135 billion yuan, the company's revenue for the first three quarters increased by 33.36% year-on-year; profit growth was weaker than revenue. Operating profit and net profit for the first three quarters were 9.87 million yuan and 828 million yuan, respectively, up 50.15% and 67.23% year-on-year respectively. Basic earnings per share were 0.54 yuan. On a quarterly basis, under the influence of a low base in Q3, revenue performance slightly exceeded expectations, up 86.70% year on year; single-quarter operating profit and net profit increased 51.32% and 78.10% year on year, respectively. Q3 In the off-season, Global Tesco's revenue growth rate increased faster than 18H1, driven by its own system upgrades and efficiency reforms. In the first three quarters, Global Tesco achieved revenue of 9.220 billion yuan, an increase of 28.80% year on year. Among them, cross-border export revenue increased 39.69% year on year. By business, the first three quarters revenue of electronic and apparel websites increased 54.13% and 29.20%, respectively, while third-party platform revenue increased 34.16% year on year. On a quarterly basis, Q3 Global Tesco revenue increased 45.34% year on year, and the off-season growth rate increased compared to Q2. Among them, the quarterly revenue of Q3 electronics and apparel websites increased by 52.50% and 29%, respectively, and the revenue of third-party platforms increased 37%. On the profit side, in the first three quarters, Global Tesco achieved net profit of 551 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.13%, a net profit margin of 5.97%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.13PCT. Among them, Q3 net profit was 195 million yuan, an increase of 24.74% year-on-year. Affected by vigorous inventory clean-up, the quarterly net interest rate slowed to 5.40%. Qianhai Pattoson was affected by new product development and Amazon platform price increases, and Q3 profit growth slowed. In the first three quarters, Qianhai Patuxun achieved revenue of 2,328 billion yuan, up 58.92% year on year; net profit was 186 million yuan, up 40.77% year on year, and net interest rate decreased 1.03 to 7.99% year on year. Among them, Q3 revenue and net profit increased by 48.35% and 16.91% respectively, and the profit growth rate slowed down. The core reason for the increase in Q3 profit growth is that the company Q3 is increasing its new product development and promotion efforts. At the same time, as the sales scale increases, logistics and warehousing costs have also increased accordingly. Combined with the impact of price increases on the Amazon platform, the Q3 Qianhai fee rate has increased rapidly. Youyi is developing steadily, and has achieved its promised performance targets for the whole year in the first three quarters. With import revenue of 4.235 billion yuan and stated net profit of 210 million yuan and a net profit margin of 5.07%, it has fulfilled its annual performance commitment. The income scale of 100 yuan is stable, but there is still a loss. The 100 yuan pants industry had revenue of 107 million yuan in the first three quarters, but is still expected to lose money. The combination of advantages has led to a decline in gross margin, but the ability to control fees through refined management has increased. The company's consolidated gross margin fell 9.88PCT to 38.51% year on year in the first three quarters, mainly due to the low gross profit of Youyi e-commerce. In the context of refined operations, the cost ratio for the period dropped sharply by 8.44PCT to 32.06%. Among them, sales expenses fell 7.88PCT to 29.33% year on year, operating expenses fell 0.50PCT to 2.08% year on year, and financial expenses increased 0.06PCT to 0.64% year on year. The overall net interest rate declined slightly by 0.42PCT to 5.25% year over year. Regardless of the influence of merit, in the context of peak season stocking, the effects of global fine control are gradually reflected, and the quality of operations has improved. Inventory control in the Third Quarterly Report was adequate in light of high revenue growth. Inventory at the end of Q3 was 4.66 billion yuan, a slight increase of 150 million yuan from the end of the mid-term. Among them, global clearance efforts increased, and Q3 inventory fell to 3.4 billion, a slight decrease from the beginning of the year. Among them, goods over 1 year accounted for only 7%, and products stocked during the peak season within 3 months accounted for a relatively large proportion. During the same period, Qianhai Parthoson's inventory volume was 377 million yuan, an increase of about 20% over the beginning of the year. Youyi's inventory was 747 million yuan, a slight increase from the beginning of the year. In addition, accounts payable increased by 440 million yuan to 1.22 billion yuan during the same period, increasing bargaining power with upstream suppliers. Net operating cash flow was $150 million, of which $150 million was for Global, $130 million for Q3, and $3,317 and $50.35 million for Qianhai and Youyi respectively. Investment recommendations and profit forecasts: The company's core management framework was adjusted in the first half of this year. Now, starting from the data and technology side, the core competitiveness built at the logistics system, supply chain system, own brand system, intelligent customer service, and intelligent marketing system is gradually showing, driving the company's growth to accelerate in the third quarter, and with the arrival of the Q4 e-commerce season, the company is expected to maintain rapid growth. Furthermore, the effects of the company's refined management are gradually being reflected. With the steady advancement of website platformization, localization, and supplier delivery systems, it is expected that the results of cash flow and inventory optimization will be maintained. As the Q4 industry gradually enters the peak season, the growth rate of GMV, the company's main electronics and clothing website, has increased since October. Without considering amortization of the fifth equity incentive fee, net profit is expected to reach 1.2 billion dollars for the whole year, an increase of 60-70% over the previous year (a comparable increase of 45-50%). Combined with the three quarterly reports, the 18-20 EPS was fine-tuned to 0.78, 1.09, and 1.50 yuan. The current market value is 16.3 billion yuan, corresponding to 18PE14X/19PE10X. The valuation is not high, so it can be laid out for a long time at the bottom. Maintain a “Highly Recommended - A” investment rating. Risk warning: industry policy risk exceeds expectations; cultivation of new business such as imports falls short of expectations; pledge risk.

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