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启迪桑德(000826)三季报报点评:业绩低于预期 费用大幅上涨和减值吞噬利润

國信證券 ·  Nov 1, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Performance fell short of expectations. Sharp cost increases and impairment engulfed profits. The company achieved revenue of 8.48 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2018, up 29.95% year on year, and attributable net profit of 848 million yuan, +2.07% year over year, minus +4.83% year on year, slightly below expectations. Factors such as a sharp increase in expenses in the third quarter and project progress falling short of expectations made the third quarter's single-quarter revenue +17.2% and net profit -28.70%. Sharp cost increases and impairments eat up profits: the expense ratio continued the upward trend of the second quarter. The sales expense ratio in the first three quarters increased by 1.21pct, the management expense ratio (plus R&D) increased by 1.2pct, the financial expense ratio increased by 0.69pct, and the total cost rate increased by 3.1 ptc to 17.39%. The total increase over the previous year of 542 million yuan (+58%) ate up most of the profits. At the same time, asset impairment for bad debts in the first three quarters was 102 million yuan, +302% over the same period last year. High cash requirements: The company increased repayments in the third quarter, with a single quarter repayment of 1.93 billion yuan. The net cash flow from operating activities in the first three quarters was -1.27 billion yuan, an improvement over the previous year. Accounts receivable continued to increase to 6.26 billion yuan (of which about 2.6 billion were renewable resource subsidy funds), and increased by 650 million in a single quarter (of which about 400 million were renewable resource subsidy funds). The company's currency and cash in hand decreased to 2.3 billion yuan, -65% over the same period last year, indicating that the company has invested heavily in business and is in need of capital, and is being solved through short-term financing, winning votes, etc. Operating revenue accounted for more than half, and revenue was more steady. Looking at the impressive sanitation growth sector, sanitation operations in the first three quarters were about 2.3 billion yuan (plus sanitation construction about 2.8 billion yuan), an impressive increase, exceeding 1.79 billion yuan for the whole of last year. Revenue from renewable resources is about 1.5 billion dollars, solid waste operations are about 300 million, water operations are about 500 million, and the rest is municipal construction and equipment. Overall, the company's operating revenue (sanitation+recycling+solid waste+water) accounted for 55% in the first three quarters and continued to increase steadily. The company's operating business has taken shape, and operations have become more stable. The company's overall gross margin for the first three quarters was 31.04%, an increase of 1.31pct over the previous year, which also shows the impact of the increase in the company's high gross margin in operating business. Sanitation orders continued to grow rapidly. In the first three quarters, the company added an annualized sanitation contract amount of about 2.8 billion yuan, with a total order value of 37.7 billion yuan. Profit forecasting and investment rating companies affected by the macro situation this year's engineering business fell short of expectations, and contraction increased repayment. However, due to the large business layout, the rapid rise in expenses has dragged down performance. We lowered the company's profit forecast for 18-20 to 13.3/18.7/27.2 billion yuan, corresponding to PE by 11/8/6 times. The company has a complete solid waste disposal industry chain layout, leading the sanitation business model and growing rapidly. Currently, it accounts for more than 50% of operating revenue, and operations are more steady. It is optimistic about the integrated benefits brought by the company's sanitation business in the long term, and maintains a buying rating. Risk indicates that the project is progressing or falls short of expectations

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