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太极实业(600667)深度研究:五大优势突破 引领存储封测

國金證券 ·  Nov 22, 2018 00:00  · Researches

The five core advantages of memory chip packaging products, industries, and equipment configurations are very different advantages: unlike logic products, memory chip manufacturers use repetitive, high volume, unification, low number of pins, and stacked packaging. Due to the large differences in packaging products, technology, test equipment, and equipment configuration ratios, major logic packaging manufacturers want to use their existing equipment advantages to enter the memory packaging market without technical and cost competitiveness. Technology, depreciation costs, yield, and talent advantages of Haitai/Taiji Semiconductor: The main expansion of global memory chip manufacturers in the next ten years will be in mainland China, and because of technical barriers and advantages in cost, yield, talent, cash flow and economic scale, Taiji Industrial and Ziguang Hongmao will be superior to Payton in dominating China's memory chip testing market. Hynix's phase II expansion and mass production of Hefei Changxin and Changjiang memory chips in the next 5-10 years is estimated that in 2020-2021, Hefei Changxin will account for 30% of Taiji Industrial's sealing and testing business, while Changjiang Storage will account for 10%. These will drive Haitai and Taiji semiconductor packaging and testing. The module business has a compound growth rate of 21% over 4 years, and reached 5.5 billion dollars in revenue in 2020 and 6.8 billion in 2021. Advantages of mutual assistance between clean room design and memory chip packaging and testing channels: Using its market share of more than 70% of the integrated circuit clean room design and engineering package, Taiji Industrial is more likely to expand new customers than ordinary packaging and testing factories. For example, Hynix and Hefei Changxin are also customers in the company's clean room design and sealing business. Autonomy and controllability have enhanced advantages after being promoted by large funds: China's memory chip packaging has huge room for growth in technology, market share, scale, and self-sufficiency rate (memory chip encapsulation self-sufficiency rate < 10%, logic chip encapsulation self-sufficiency rate about 45-50%). In particular, growth is more certain after investing 6.2% in large funds. Fixed profit margin advantage: Because most memory chip packaging and module manufacturing industries add up all expenses and then add fixed ratio profit to calculate the average unit price and sales, the decline in memory and flash memory prices in the medium term will only cause core customers to demand that Taiji Industrial work hard to reduce costs, and will not put too much pressure on the sealing and testing business and profit margins of Haitai and Taiji Semiconductors. The investment recommendation is that we have given a “buy” rating for the first time. China's memory chip packaging industry and Taiji Industrial have a lot of room for growth. After investing 6.2% in big funds, cooperating with Eleven Technology's channel advantages in turnkey projects, and expanding the market share of Hynix, Western Digital, SpecTek, Xincheng, Hefei Changxin, and Changjiang Storage, Taiji Industrial will become one of the main beneficiary companies under the autonomy and control of the Chinese storage semiconductor industry. We estimate that over the next four years, it will have a compound growth rate of 22% per diluted share. The valuation of Taiji Industrial's target price of 9.4 yuan for the next 12-18 months has a potential profit margin of more than 50%. The hypothetical basis for the target price is based on CNY $0.427 (1 times PEG) of 22 times earnings per share in 2021 and net assets per share in 2020, which is 2.7 times higher, corresponding to an estimated return on net assets of 5-10%. Business risk brought about by excessive concentration of risk customers, risk of customers being judged before trial, management risk caused by insufficiently flexible management mechanisms of state-owned enterprises, and performance risk caused by weak follow-up orders in the cleanroom engineering business.

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