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三维通信(002115)三季报点评:广告资源进一步拓展 业绩稳步上行

西南證券 ·  Nov 2, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Event: Company announcement 2018 three-quarter report and 2018 full-year performance forecast. The first three quarters of 2018 achieved revenue of 2.38 billion yuan (+227%), net profit of 170 million yuan (+693%), net profit of 170 million yuan (+693%), and non-net profit of 99.39 million yuan (+2052%). The company's performance fell at the top of the performance forecast. At the same time, the company announced its 2018 full-year results forecast. Net profit for the full year of 2018 is expected to reach between RMB 21-250 million, an increase of 344%-429% over the previous year. Disposal of vacant properties has greatly boosted the company's performance over the past 18 years, and the WeChat advertising business continues to grow at a high rate. The high growth in the company's performance is mainly due to: 1) Juwang Technology was merged in November 2017, making the comparable base for the same period in '17 different. Moreover, in the same period in 2017, the company's traditional network optimization business market competition was intense, and it maintained its revenue scale. 2) The company's main WeChat advertising business continues to grow. In a single quarter of 2018Q3, the company achieved revenue of 950 million yuan, which is equivalent to half of the total revenue of NetYou+ Internet Advertising in 2017. 3) In the first three quarters of 2018, the company disposed of idle properties to achieve pre-tax income of more than 79 million yuan, which greatly increased the company's profits. Self-media advertising resources have been further expanded, and the number of company fans continues to rise. Since 2018, the company has continued to increase resource investment in the self-media business, mainly WeChat accounts. In the single quarter of 2018Q3, the company added about 100 million yuan in amortization. Since more than 90% of amortization was traffic procurement costs, the company further increased procurement of self-media resources, mainly WeChat accounts, in the third quarter. 2018Q4 Tencent's social advertising business may be guaranteed. The company's Tencent social advertising business model is that the company first purchases advertising credits from Tencent. As of the end of September 2018, the company had prepaid an account of 340 million yuan, an increase of 100 million yuan over the end of June 2018, and the scale of the company's social advertising business was further increased. The company's advertising business is mainly Tencent's social advertising business, covering the PC-side website, software, and app markets. The company continues to lead among Tencent SMB service providers, driving the company's advertising business to increase revenue rapidly. Profit forecasts and investment advice. It is estimated that the company's net profit for 2018-2020 will be 229/2.39/266 million yuan, and the EPS will be 0.41/0.43/0.48 yuan, respectively. We believe that the company's performance assessment targets for 2018 and 2019 are 170 million yuan and 220 million yuan, and that Juwang Technology's performance promises for 2018 and 2019 are 130 million yuan and 170 million yuan. The company's performance may be guaranteed. The company is a scarce target of social advertising monetization and self-media advertising for WeChat traffic in the A-share market. The company is expected to benefit to the greatest extent from this round of WeChat traffic dividends, reach a new level, and maintain its “buy” rating. Risk warning: The performance of the subject of mergers and acquisitions falls short of expectations, the risk of WeChat's traffic or regulation, the growth rate of the advertising business or the risk of falling short of expectations, investment returns or falling short of expectations, and the risk of strengthening relevant national policies or regulations.

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