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金科文化(300459)三季报点评:用户规模持续增长 4Q与阿里衍生品合作有望加速落地

中信證券 ·  Oct 30, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Key investment revenue continues to grow at a high level, and performance is in line with expectations. In Q1-Q3 of 2018, the company achieved operating income of 2,007 billion yuan, or 69.33% over the same period last year, mainly driven by a sharp increase in mobile Internet culture business due to the Merger 7 merger; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 755 million yuan, an increase of 157.31% over the same period last year. During the reporting period, thanks to high-margin mobile Internet business growth, the company's gross margin reached 72%, a year-on-year increase of 36.23pct; sales/management and R&D/financial expenses were 5.3%/12.69%/3.66% respectively, up 3.67pct/6.51pct/4.55pct year on year, due to pre-marketing expenses and legal and financial expenses arising from the merger and acquisition process after Costing 7. The product line has been further expanded, and the number of users has continued to expand. During the reporting period, the company's new products “Tom Cat Battle Camp” (SLG), “Tom Cat Fast”, and “Tom Cat Motorboat 2” (racing) were launched and achieved good results. Thanks to the continuous enrichment of the product line and the summer effect, the number of users of the company reached a new high. Among them, MAU increased by about 20% month-on-month in July and August, peaked at over 70 million, and the highest global MAU exceeded 400 million. With the launch of 4Q's blockbuster new product “My Talking Tom 2,” the number of users is expected to continue to increase. Cooperation between the derivatives business and Ali is expected to accelerate in 4Q and become a new performance growth point. During the reporting period, the company and Alibaba reached a strategic cooperation on the Tom Cat derivatives business. Alibaba provided the company with derivatives business data and channel support. It is expected that implementation will accelerate in 4Q and become a new performance growth point for the company. At the same time, the company's Tom Cat theme park has opened in Chengbei Shidai Chaocheng and Hefei Joy City in Shangyu District, Shaoxing City. The Shanghai and Hangzhou stores are being actively promoted; the offline brand's domestic licensing debut collaborated with the influencer Candy Lab, significantly increasing the sales of single stores. The number of visitors to the store on the day of the partnership reached more than 550 (double the daily traffic), and it will be promoted in other cities in the future to enhance the influence of the Tomcat IP brand image. risk factors. 1) The performance of the new tour fell short of expectations; 2) The progress of the IP derivatives business fell short of expectations. Profit forecasts and investment ratings. We are optimistic about the company's development for a long time. As the number of users continues to expand due to the launch of new products and the accelerated implementation of derivative businesses, the company's performance is expected to maintain high growth. We maintain the company's 2018-2020 EPS (basic) forecast of 0.59/0.78/0.96 yuan, and the current stock price corresponding to 2018-2020 PE is 10.8/8.1/6.6 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.

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