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德联集团(002666)三季报点评:发力后市场 业绩稳增长

西南證券 ·  Oct 29, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Performance summary: The company released its 2018 three-quarter report, achieving revenue of 2.65 billion yuan, an increase of 36% over the previous year, net profit of 95 million yuan, an increase of 6.9% over the previous year, and net profit of 88 million yuan after deducting non-net profit of 88 million yuan, an increase of 4.9% over the previous year. The third quarter alone achieved revenue of 890 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, net profit of a net profit of 35 million yuan, an increase of 5.4% year-on-year, and a year-on-year decrease of -3.0% after deducting non-net profit of 31 million yuan. Continue to strengthen the automotive aftermarket and achieve steady growth in performance. From January to September 2018, China's automobile production was 20.49 million vehicles, an increase of 0.9% over the previous year, and the company's revenue growth rate reached 36%, due to the increase in car ownership in China and the company's continued development in the aftermarket business. According to the 2018 interim report data, the company's fine chemicals and automobile sales business achieved revenue of 1.28 billion yuan and 3.1 billion yuan respectively in the first half of the year. Compared with the same period last year, it achieved growth rates of 29% and 149%, indicating that the company's business expansion in the aftermarket was strong, driving continued rapid revenue growth. The automobile sales business, which has a relatively low gross margin, grew faster, causing the gross margin for the first three quarters of 2018 to drop 1.5 percentage points compared to the same period, so the net profit growth rate was lower than the revenue growth rate. Long-term development prospects are improving, and the increase in management's holdings shows confidence. The number of cars owned in China continues to rise, which helps the company's performance continue to improve. At the same time, the company continues to make efforts in the field of new energy vehicles. Customers include mainstream domestic NEV manufacturers such as BYD, SAIC, BAIC, GAC, Yutong, NIO, and Weimar, as well as overseas customers such as Tesla, etc., to ensure long-term positive business development. The company announced in July 2018 that four managers, including the board secretary, deputy general manager, financial director, and assistant chairman, plan to increase their holdings by no less than 20 million yuan, which also shows confidence in the company's future development. Profit forecasts and investment advice. The company's net profit for 2018-2020 is estimated to be 1.6/18/210 million yuan, corresponding to EPS of 0.22/0.24/0.27 yuan, respectively, and corresponding PE valuations of 16 times, 15 times, and 13 times respectively, covering the first time, giving it an “increased holdings” rating. Risk warning: Aftermarket business development or risk that falls short of expectations. Risks such as NEV business development or falling short of expectations.

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