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海正药业(600267)三季报点评:生物药、CSO业务利好频传 拐点将至

Haizheng Pharmaceutical Industry (600267) Quarterly report comments: biological drugs, CSO business good frequent inflection point is coming

太平洋證券 ·  Oct 30, 2018 16:00  · Researches

Event: the company released its three-quarter report in 2018, with operating income of 7.8046918 billion yuan (- 4.55%), net profit of 7.1136 million yuan (+ 39.19%), and net profit of-108.7492 million yuan (- 514.44%) after deducting non-profit.

The gross profit margin has increased, and the growth of expenses and depreciation has dragged down the performance.

In the first three quarters, the company's revenue fell 4.55% from the same period last year, an increase of 1.38% compared with the China News, mainly due to: 1) Hanhui Pharmaceutical changed its revenue recognition method after the implementation of the "two-vote system". Part of Pfizer Inc injected products into the collection of promotion service fees, the scale of revenue became smaller, but did not affect profits; 2) APIs did not receive notice of lifting the ban by the European Union, and the recovery progress of the European market was lower than expected. The company's overall gross profit margin was 39.17%, an increase of 10.31 percentage points compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the fact that the change in Hanhui's revenue recognition method did not affect the gross margin but the base became smaller. Sales expenses increased by 66.56% over the same period last year, which is expected to be mainly due to the increase in marketing costs and the conversion of some varieties from low to high. The R & D expenditure in the first three quarters is nearly 300 million yuan (+ 10.71%). In recent years, the company's R & D investment rate is about 50%. It is estimated that the R & D investment in the first three quarters will be about 600 million yuan, and the annual R & D investment is expected to reach nearly 930 million yuan, an increase of 10%. The financial expenses were 224.0635 million yuan (+ 11.27%), a decrease of 22.72 percentage points compared with the same period last year. At present, the company's asset-liability ratio is 64.45%, which is still high but basically stable. as the large-scale investment in fixed assets is nearing the end, the company's asset-liability ratio will gradually stabilize, and it is expected that the increase in financial expenses will further decline. Financial expenses will be less of a drag on performance. The sharp increase in net profit compared with the same period last year was mainly due to the recognition of non-recurrent profit and loss of 115.8629 million yuan, an increase of 93.05 million yuan compared with the same period last year. The decrease in net profit after deduction is mainly due to 1) the continued growth of various expenses and 2) the depreciation of fixed assets. The net operating cash flow is 961.7285 million yuan (+ 49.62%), indicating that the company's main business is in good condition.

Hanhui Pharmaceutical has a high performance growth, and the introduction of varieties has gradually landed.

In the first three quarters, the company confirmed that the profit and loss of minority shareholders (mainly contributed by Hanhui Pharmaceutical) was 260.2576 million yuan, a simultaneous increase of 49.64%. As sales of special drugs and antineoplastic drugs return to normal; rosuvastatin, irbesartan and other consistently evaluated varieties make use of favorable policies to release volume rapidly; Pfizer Inc and other varieties injected by methylprednisolone are growing steadily. Hanhui Pharmaceutical is expected to achieve an annual profit growth of about 40%. Hanhui Pharmaceutical has represented Montester Sodium and Novartis three COPD drugs of Ambient Pharmaceuticals. In the future, it will continue to increase capital through the continuous introduction of varieties. As a scarce and standardized CSO platform, its value will be gradually reflected.

The insulin plate is introduced into the war, opening the value revaluation.

In the biomedical plate, two third-generation insulin, Glargine and Mendong, have entered the clinical phase of III.

Haisheng Pharmaceutical, a subsidiary of insulin, plans to introduce War Investment through the transfer of old shares-capital increase and share expansion, with a pre-investment valuation of not less than 1.9 billion yuan. In the McAb section, Ambono quickly released the volume after expanding the production batch. PDB data show that 18H1 sales are 2.0372 million yuan (+ 103%), which is expected to achieve 30-500000 units for the whole year. Adamumab has been declared and produced, ranking the first echelon in China. Infliximab, trazumab and rituximab have all entered III phase, and many varieties are in clinical phase I and IND. The company's monoclonal antibody plate is about to enter the harvest period, with a valuation of about 8 billion yuan.

Get the agency of doxorubicin liposome, CSO business will be the next city.

Fudan Zhangjiang (1319.HK) also announced on October 29 that it signed a marketing service agreement with Huizheng Pharmaceutical, a subsidiary of Hanhui Pharmaceutical, for doxorubicin hydrochloride liposome injection (Lipodo) for a period of 10 years. Li Baoduo is the first imitated tumor treatment drug in Zhangjiang, Fudan. It is a passive targeting doxorubicin hydrochloride liposome encapsulated by invisible liposome technology. After the doxorubicin dosage form was changed to liposome, the cardiotoxic side effect caused by the common dosage form was reduced. At present, the liposome dosage form has occupied the main market share of doxorubicin. In 17 years, the sales of doxorubicin liposome sample hospital was 370.3916 million yuan, and the market shares of CSPC Pharmaceutical, Fudan Zhangjiang and Changzhou Jinyuan were 59.58%, 28.38% and 12.04%, respectively. The doxorubicin of Zhangjiang in Fudan was previously sold by 1011.HK, and the two sides terminated the agency and promotion cooperation at the end of the 17th. Haizheng Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. has three antibiotic antineoplastic drugs: epirubicin, Idarubicin and pirarubicin, which have a high market share. This time, it has won the agency of doxorubicin liposomes and improved its own product line of antibiotic antineoplastic drugs. formed a good synergy, the company has a tumor drug sales team of about 500 people, with the help of the original academic promotion service team and channels. The market share of doxorubicin liposomes is expected to recover gradually.

Valuation and investment advice-the former king, the inflection point of history!

The company's business and management are expected to usher in a historic inflection point: 1) after the entry of Hillhouse Capital to optimize management, Hanhui Pharmaceutical profits grew rapidly, 2018H1 grew by more than 40%, and revenue basically did not grow because of the change in the two-vote system, with a real growth of more than 20%. The mature CSO model will be adopted to continue to grow through the introduction of varieties; 2) the value of the biopharmaceutical sector is seriously undervalued.

Ambanol began to grow rapidly after production expansion, Adamu monoclonal antibody production; 3) chemical innovation drug Haize Maibu III clinical data is good; 4) a large number of generic drug BE, no stock, large production capacity, benefiting from the national collection and mining policy, it is expected to make full use of fixed assets, the volume will effectively make up for depreciation expenses, and the net interest rate will be increased. 5) once the fixed increase is completed, the management system is straightened out and the incentive measures are in place, it will usher in a historical inflection point.

If the fixed increase is successfully completed, the reasonable market value will be 25-30 billion yuan in 2019, taking into account the dark horse attribute, and a 20% discount will be given out of the principle of prudence, with a reasonable valuation of more than 20 billion. Among them, 1) Hanhui Pharmaceutical: it is estimated that the 19-year net profit of Hanhui Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. is 685,100,856 million yuan, an increase of 39%. Haizheng Pharmaceutical holds 51% equity, and the net profit of equity is 349,000,000 yuan, which is calculated at 29 times PE, corresponding to a valuation of 10 billion yuan. 2) Biopharmaceuticals: with reference to the valuation of similar enterprises such as Fuhong Hanlin and INNOVENT BIO, the value of the monoclonal antibody part is about 8 billion yuan. The insulin plate is valued at 2 billion yuan, with a total valuation of 10 billion yuan. 3) Chemical drugs: the existing varieties still have great growth potential, the clinical data of the III phase of the new drug Haize Maibu is good, the achievements of R & D investment for many years begin to show, the echelon of products under development is good, give a valuation of 5 billion yuan. 4) API: net profit of 2000-30 million yuan in 2017, enter the recovery channel after the lifting of the ban on FDA, EU certification is expected to be re-passed, FDA and EU ban before the normal net profit of more than 300 million yuan, calculated by 10 times PE, the valuation is 3 billion yuan; 5) Pharmaceutical business: 2018 net profit of 31 million yuan, is expected to continue to maintain stable growth, a reasonable valuation of 500 million yuan. It is estimated that the company's annual net profit in 18-19-20 will be 125 million yuan, 354 million yuan and 580 million yuan respectively. Maintain a "buy" rating.

Risk tips: capital increase and share expansion failed to get delisted by investors; sales of agent varieties were not as expected; additional issuance was not completed; Adamu monoclonal antibody was not approved or the progress was slow; excessive depreciation of fixed assets affected performance.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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