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新南洋(600661)季报点评:扣非净利同比增长20.2% 教培整顿市场规范利好龙头发展

天風證券 ·  Oct 31, 2018 00:00  · Researches

18Q1-3 revenue increased 21.13% year on year, net profit after deducting non-return net profit increased 20.21% year on year. On October 30, the company released the 2018 third quarter report; revenue for the first three quarters of 2018 was 1,578 billion, up 21.13% year on year (18Q1, 18Q2, and 18Q3, respectively, 28.00%, 20.70%); net profit was 97 million yuan, down 19.75% year on year (18Q1, 18Q2, and 18Q3, respectively). 12.54%, -37.15%), net profit after deducting non-return of net profit of 85 million yuan, an increase of 20.21% over the previous year, and EPS of 0.34 yuan. The 18Q1-3 non-recurring profit and loss items are mainly: non-current asset disposal profit and loss of 917,000 yuan (51.488 million yuan in 17Q1-3), government subsidies of 12.82 million yuan (17Q1-3 is 8040,000 yuan), etc., including current profit and loss, totaling 11.892 million yuan (17Q1-3 is 498.82 million yuan), a year-on-year decrease of 76.2%, mainly due to the reduction in investment income from stock holdings in the same period last year. At the same time, the company announced that the stock abbreviation will be changed from “New Nanyang” to “Onli Education”, and the stock code “600661” will remain the same. In July 2014, after the company completed the major asset restructuring of Onli Education, Onli Education became a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company. The company's main business is determined as the education service business. The company takes promoting the expansion of education service business development as the center of strategic work, continuously increases the rectification and divestment of non-education industries, and further concentrates resources on the education service business. As of 2017, the company's education service business accounted for more than 85% of total revenue, and the net profit contribution exceeded 100% of the consolidated statement. Among them, Onli Education accounts for more than 80%, which has a significant impact on the company's main business and position in the industry. The education and training industry continues to be upgraded. Local leaders have benefited from small and medium-sized institutions shutting down traffic, and long-term industry concentration has further increased. In February '18, the Ministry of Education, together with the Ministry of Civil Affairs, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, and the State Administration for Industry and Commerce, issued a notice on special management actions for out-of-school training institutions. In August, the General Office of the State Council issued opinions on regulating the development of out-of-school training, with the aim of promoting the standardized and orderly development of out-of-school training institutions. Currently, local education bureaus are investigating and rectifying education and training institutions' operating permits, business licenses, teacher qualifications, advance payment times, and site space. It is expected that the education and training reform will further rectify and clean up small and medium-sized institutions with weak qualifications. At the same time, as competition regulations are upgraded, the costs of institutional regulation (rent, teacher remuneration) may increase in the short to medium term; in the long run, the concentration of leading or beneficiary industries in the education and training industry will increase, and the clearance of market-regulated institutions under strong control is conducive to the long-term healthy development of the industry. Maintain profit forecasts and give buying ratings. The company's main business is education and training, mainly involving K12 education, vocational education, international education, early childhood education and other business fields. The company relies on Shanghai Jiao Tong University and has strong competitive advantages in brand building, curriculum development, business development, talent training, and teacher training in the field of education and training. Onli Education, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, is a well-known education and training institution in Shanghai. The company has formed a complete education and training service industry chain, and has developed rapidly through two wheels of content growth and external expansion. We expect the company's EPS in 18-19 to be 0.82 and 1.01 yuan respectively; corresponding PE is 24x and 19x, respectively. Risk warning: The country has vigorously overhauled the K12 extracurricular education and training industry, affecting the speed at which the company starts; the pace of development of vocational education, international education and other businesses is falling short of expectations; the risk of loss of core talent; and the layout of the education industry of CICC Capital or Changjia Capital falls short of expectations.

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