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仁和药业(000650)季报点评:业绩符合预期 期待18Q4收入增速改善

招商證券 ·  Oct 30, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Incident: The company released its three-quarter report in '18. Revenue, net profit and net profit deducted from net income were $3,336 million, $393 million, and $393 million respectively, compared with +22.88%, +51.95%, and +56.07%, respectively, in line with our three-quarter report outlook. The comments are as follows: The revenue growth rate fluctuated in 18Q3, and we look forward to improvements in 18Q4. In 18Q3, the company's revenue, net profit, and net profit from non-net income were +15.57%, +53.10%, and +59.93%, respectively. The profit growth rate was significantly higher than the revenue growth rate, mainly the increase in gross margin: the gross profit margin of the 18Q3 consolidated statement was 42.92%, up 5.03 percentage points from the previous year. We judge that it was mainly due to the increase in gross margin brought about by increased product revenue growth and increased industrial capacity utilization. We judge that the 18Q3 OTC sales revenue growth rate is about +20%, which is a decline from the +30% growth rate of 18H1 for two reasons: 1) Sales subsidiaries such as Jiangxi Renhe Pharmaceutical, which originally did not control sales, needed to expand chain coverage and carry out a large number of stores in 18H1, which boosted the growth rate of OTC sales in 18H1. Comparatively speaking, we estimate that the revenue growth rate of 18Q3 and China is still around +30%, because its marketing system and pharmacy coverage are mature, 18Q3 is not affected by 18H1 distribution factors, and has maintained a rapid growth trend; 2) Q4 is generally the peak OTC sales season, and companies will generally give sales staff better sales policies under the controlled sales model, so we estimate that some sales staff are motivated to move some sales to 18Q4, thus affecting 18Q3 performance. The 18Q3 company's sales expenses were -1.24% year on year. We expect 18Q4 sales expenses to increase significantly year on year. The increase in 18Q1-3 sales expenses exceeds the growth rate of OTC revenue, indicating that the marketing control network is still expanding. In 18Q1-3, the company's revenue growth rate was +22.88%. We estimate that the OTC sales revenue growth rate was around +26% year-on-year, far higher than the OTC industry growth rate of around 8%, mainly driven by the marketing control model. The 18Q1-3 gross margin was +6.13 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to an increase in the share of high-margin self-product revenue. 18Q1-3 sales expenses are +37.78% year-on-year, which is significantly higher than the revenue growth rate, indicating that the marketing control network is still expanding and requires investment in upfront costs. Accounts receivable at the end of the 18Q3 period were 644 million yuan, up from 561 million yuan at the beginning of the period. We estimate that the accounts receivable increased slightly due to chain delivery and the extension of account periods. Maintain a “Highly Recommended - A” rating. We expect the company's net profit growth rate from 2018-2020 to be 40%/30%/26%, respectively, and the corresponding EPS is 0.43/0.56/0.70 yuan, respectively. As a leading OTC enterprise, the company has a rich variety and strong brand power. After the formation of a local promotion team, it ushered in an era of OTC terminal sales control, and sales are expected to maintain rapid growth; after the product revenue ratio expands, profitability is expected to increase markedly.

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