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赢时胜(300377)季报点评:三季报符合预期 内生增速依然强劲

長城證券 ·  Oct 30, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Investment advice: Considering the rigidity and growth of the needs of the company's industry, the potential impetus of policies such as the “New Asset Management Regulations” on system orders, the company's leading segmentation position, and the huge potential space brought by the company's Fintech layout, given that the company's 2018 three-quarter report is in line with expectations, we continue to be optimistic about the company's future development and maintain a “highly recommended” rating. Revenue and profit are growing rapidly, the results of the third quarter report are in line with expectations, and the growth rate of the main endogenous business is still very strong: the company's overall three-quarter report is in line with market expectations. In the first three quarters of 2018, the company continued to step up the marketing and project implementation of next-generation asset management systems and asset custody systems, achieving operating income of 473 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.24%, and net profit of 118 million yuan, an increase of 41.26% over the previous year. It is below the central value of the company's third-quarter performance forecast, and achieved net profit of 112 million yuan, an increase of 43.06% over the previous year. Among them, it achieved operating income of 166 million yuan in the third quarter and realized net profit of 42.12 million yuan after deduction, an increase of 48.58% over the previous year. This growth rate was significantly higher than the 26.51% increase in net profit from the third quarter. In view of the decline in profits of many subsidiaries invested by the company, we estimate that the net profit growth rate of the company's main endogenous business after deducting Shanghai's winnings and Chainshi Technology reached about 61.08% year-on-year in the first three quarters. Although slightly lower than the reported endogenous growth rate of 63.24%, the performance was still very strong. There are obvious seasonal fluctuations in the company's business, and the fourth quarter is a top priority: since software system procurement by financial institutions is mainly concentrated in the second half of the year and is usually inspected in the fourth quarter, the company's revenue and profit data shows obvious seasonality. In 2015-2017, the company's fourth quarter revenue accounted for 41.26%, 34.78%, and 41.77% of annual revenue, respectively. The above ratios of net profit were 82.44%, 74.49%, and 59.97%. After deducting net profit, the above ratios were 82.47%, 73.77%, and 60.40%. The fourth quarter had a significant impact on the performance of the whole year. The size of accounts receivable has increased, and the turnover ratio has declined: The 2018 three-quarter report shows that the company's accounts receivable reached 568 million yuan, accounting for the proportion of total assets, rising to a three-year high of 18.48%. Since the company's fourth quarter was a peak repayment period, and most of the customers in the supply chain and factoring business were of high quality, we need to pay close attention to the company's repayment strength in the fourth quarter to reduce the loss of bad debt calculation on indicators such as net profit. From data such as the increase in the amount of accounts receivable and other receivables compared to the semi-annual report, the amount of bad debt accrued in the third quarter, and the bad debt accrual ratio set by the company in the statement, we infer that the company had bad debts transferred back in the third quarter. This also shows that the company is strengthening the management of accounts receivable within the company, which is expected to improve overall profitability in the future. Risk warning: policy progress falls short of expectations; competition intensifies, business development falls short of expectations; and credit risk for supply chain finance customers is increasing.

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