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海辰药业(300584)三季报点评:业绩符合预期 关注NMS研发进展

華創證券 ·  Oct 26, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Matters: The company announced the three-quarter report that the first three quarters achieved revenue of 526 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 74.19%, net profit of 62.3 million, a year-on-year increase of 35.74%, net profit of 62.3 million, a year-on-year increase of 60.9 million, a year-on-year increase of 36.09%; Q3 single-quarter operating revenue increased 42.34% year-on-year, net profit increased 30.64% year-on-year, and non-net profit increased 30.71% year-on-year. Comment: The rapid growth of core varieties was affected by the shift from low to high, and the company's sales revenue and sales expenses increased significantly over the same period last year. Torasemide for injection achieved sales revenue of 2.13 yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 139.89% year on year, and sales volume increased 59.22% year on year; we expect that the company still has room to replace competing products, and it is expected that it will continue to grow at a relatively rapid rate. Among other varieties, sales revenue of cefotiam was 85.54 million yuan, up 116.61% year on year, and sales volume increased 15.18% year on year; lansoprazole sales revenue was 54.26 million yuan, up 25.84% year on year, sales volume increased 11.67% year on year; sales revenue of injectable tigecycline was 21.38 million yuan, up 72.76% year on year, sales volume increased 110.0% year on year; sales revenue of injectable cefoxidone sodium was 19.36 million yuan, up 371.46% year on year, sales volume was 230,000 sticks, up 48.11% year on year. Following the NMS Group's R&D progress on the NMS side, the Chinese management team is in place to sort out and optimize the types under development, and launch a new round of financing to support subsequent R&D work. The NMS product pipeline is dominated by antineoplastic drugs, including PARP1 targets, FLT-3 targets, KIT targets, ADC drugs, etc. Entrutinib authorized to Ignyta is expected to be approved within the year; in June 2018, NMS Group reached an agreement with Merck to jointly develop a new small molecule drug based on a DNA damage repair mechanism. As the project progresses, NMS will receive a down payment, milestone payment, and sales commission, etc., with excellent R&D capabilities. Profit forecast, valuation and investment ratings: We maintain the company's estimated net profit for 2018-2020 of $0.83, 1.07 and $138 million, EPS of 0.70, 0.89 and 1.15 yuan, respectively, and corresponding PE of 32 times, 25 times and 19 times, respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating. Risk warning: The promotion of the main varieties falls short of expectations, and the progress of the varieties under development falls short of expectations

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