The 2018 3Q results were in line with expectations, and Tianjin Port Corporation announced the 2018 3Q results: operating income was 3.499 billion yuan, down 1% year on year (up 10% month on month); net profit attributable to the parent company was 200 million yuan, down 21% year on year, corresponding to earnings per share of 0.12 yuan, in line with expectations. Non-profit profits of 217 million yuan were deducted in the third quarter, down 19% from the previous year, significantly better than the 38% decline in the first half of the year, and remained basically the same as in the second quarter (218 million yuan), indicating that the impact of the road coal embargo that began in April last year has stabilized, and the year-on-year impact has decreased. Revenue for the first three quarters fell 12% year on year, and we have achieved net profit of 647 million yuan (down 19% year on year), accounting for 81% of our full-year profit forecast. Trends in container handling business: According to data from the Ministry of Transport, the overall container throughput of Tianjin Port in the first three quarters increased by 5.7% year-on-year, slightly faster than 5.2% in the first half of the year, and slightly higher than the growth rate of major coastal ports during the same period (5.0%). After completing asset injection last year (acquisition of container assets such as Alliance International, Tianjin Container Terminal, and Eurasia International), the company became the main operating platform for handling and physical operations under the Tianjin Port Group, which is conducive to the development of container business. Dry bulk throughput has improved: According to data from the Ministry of Transport, the overall cargo throughput of Tianjin Port fell 1.8% in the first three quarters, better than -4.8% in the first half of the year, but it is still necessary to observe the possible impact of environmental policies in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region on downstream demand for port goods, port operations, and collection ports. The future focus is on the development opportunities that the construction of Xiong'an New Area may bring. The profit forecast takes into account the extremely low net profit base for the fourth quarter of last year (only 23 million yuan). We believe that the fourth quarter of this year will return to normal levels, keeping the 2018/19e profit forecast of 804 million yuan/902 million yuan unchanged. The valuation and recommended company's current stock price corresponds to 14.7/13.1 times P/E in 18/19. Maintaining a neutral rating, but considering the decline in overall market risk appetite and declining valuation levels, we lowered our target price by 9% from 8.90 yuan to 8.09 yuan, corresponding to 16.8/15.0 times P/E in 18/19, with 15% room compared to the current stock price. The throughput of risky containers and bulk goods has declined or the growth rate has slowed, environmental policies have become more stringent, and costs have risen.
天津港(600717)季报点评:三季度业绩环比基本持平 符合预期
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