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东百集团(600693)三季报点评:业绩低于预期 零售业务恢复明显

光大證券 ·  Oct 29, 2018 00:00  · Researches

The company's 1-3Q2018 revenue decreased by 31.18% year on year, and net profit decreased by 71.17% year on year. On October 27, the company announced the 2018 three-quarter report. 1-3Q2018 achieved operating income of 1,842 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.18%, and realized net profit of 40 million yuan, converted into fully diluted EPS of 0.04 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 71.17% over the previous year, and realized net profit after deduction of 32 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 77.04%. Looking at the quarterly split, the company achieved revenue of 557 million yuan in 3Q2018, a year-on-year decrease of 28.63%, a decrease of less than 41.73% in 2Q2018. 3Q2018 achieved net profit of 0.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 88.38%. Performance fell short of expectations. The consolidated gross margin increased by 3.70 percentage points, and the period expense ratio increased 7.19 percentage points. The reasons for the sharp decline in the net profit of 1-3Q2018 companies include: 1) The company's revenue declined significantly compared to the same period last year. 1-3Q2018's commercial real estate business revenue fell 76.40% year on year. The main reason was that store sales for the Lanzhou International Trade Center project were nearing completion, and the company's supply chain management business revenue fell 70.64% year on year. The main reason was the adjustment of commodity business types. 2) Expense rates have risen sharply. The 1-3Q2018 company's period expense ratio was 15.15%, up 7.19 percentage points from the same period last year. Among them, the sales expense ratio was 8.56%, up 3.52 percentage points from the same period last year. The main reason was the increase in expenses, depreciation, and utility costs due to the commissioning of Dongbai Center Hall A2. The financial expense ratio was 2.41%, up 1.90 percentage points from the same period last year. The main reason is that the size of corporate loans increased compared to the same period last year, and the corresponding increase in interest expenses and financing expenses paid accordingly. The commercial business has clearly recovered. The commissioning of new projects will bring incremental space. After the reopening of Hall A and B of Dongbai Center in 2018, the 1-3Q2018 trade and retail business achieved revenue of 1,270 billion yuan, an increase of 52.85% over the previous year, and gross margin of 19.73%, an increase of 2.58 percentage points over the same period last year. In addition, the revenue side of the company's shopping center business also performed well. Fuzhou/Xiamen shopping center revenue increased 4.27%/6.42% year on year, respectively. As Lanzhou Center and Fu'an Dongbaai are put into operation one after another, the company's retail business is expected to expand new incremental space. Revenue fell short of expectations, profit forecasts were lowered, and the company's retail business recovered significantly, but commercial real estate and supply chain management businesses declined significantly, and revenue fell short of expectations. We lowered our forecast for the company's fully diluted EPS in 2018-2020 to 0.09/0.09/ 0.10 yuan (previously 0.16/ 0.18/ 0.19 yuan), respectively, maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating. Risk warning: The recovery of retail business did not meet expectations, and the operation of the Lanzhou Central Project fell short of expectations.

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