Main points of investment
What happened: recently, the company announced that revenue in the first three quarters of 2018 was 905 million yuan, an increase of 26.67% over the same period last year, and net profit of 294 million yuan, up 25.27% over the same period last year, deducting 274 million yuan of non-return net profit, an increase of 21.15% over the same period last year. 2018Q3's revenue was 258 million yuan, an increase of 9.63% over the same period last year, and its net profit was 84 million yuan, an increase of 13.03% over the same period last year, deducting 76 million yuan of non-return net profit, an increase of 8.95% over the same period last year.
The customer peptides of APIs are up as a whole, and the quantity can be expected in the future. The company's overseas market achieved operating income of 272 million yuan, an increase of 70.28% over the same period last year. We believe that the expansion of new customers of APIs has a slight impact on the growth of accounts receivable. With the advance of the patent challenge of Tivaliru peptide and the approach of the patent period of 2022, the company's Lilaluptide API is expected to achieve the release of characteristic raw materials after solving the current production problem (Wuhan biomedical production base). Greatly improve the company's profitability, in addition, the company's Atosiban API sales in the European market is stable.
The preparation business has increased significantly, and the products in the field of deep ploughing peptides are highly competitive. The revenue of preparation products was 464 million yuan, an increase of 50.88% over the same period last year. On the one hand, due to the impact of the two-vote system from low to high (sales expenses increased by 86.45% over the same period last year), on the other hand, the company's core varieties, terlivasopressin and somatostatin, increased significantly. Small varieties such as carbetocin and etiba peptide are gradually released, which is expected to provide greater flexibility for the company's preparation business performance in the future.
Committed to new product research and development, the company is researching a rich product line. The company invested 55.66 million yuan (9.50%) in R & D in the first three quarters. The company's blockbuster product Lilarutide injection has started clinical trials, and the company will submit an ANDA application for Gradere Acetate injection as soon as possible to compete for a market of 3.8 billion US dollars. At present, only two companies, Sandoz and Mylan, have approved generic drugs on the market. Thymus Faxin has obtained production approval. The company continues to carry out injection product consistency evaluation, injection consistency evaluation ushered in the corner overtaking opportunity. Through the acquisition of AMW in the first half of this year, the company will further explore the new drug delivery technology of polypeptide drugs, improve drug efficiency, and is expected to further enhance the competitiveness of the company's products.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we expect Hanyu Pharmaceutical's operating income from 2018 to 2020 to be 1.562 billion yuan, 1.994 billion yuan and 2.531 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributed to the parent company is 453 million yuan, 618 million yuan and 849 million yuan, and the EPS is 0.49 yuan, 0.67 yuan and 0.91 yuan respectively. The company is deeply engaged in the field of peptides, and we believe that the varieties benefiting from the health insurance catalogue are expected to see volume growth, while the continued growth in overseas demand for APIs will drive the company's export business. Therefore, we maintain our "buy" rating on the company.
Risk tips: domestic preparation bidding price reduction pressure, bidding progress is not as expected, API export is lower than expected, generic drug declaration progress is not as expected, mature goodwill impairment risk.
