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赢时胜(300377):Q3业绩持续高增 PAAS与传统业务协同效应显现

申萬宏源研究 ·  Oct 15, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Investment highlights: Win Shi Sheng released the first three quarter results forecast on October 12: Q1-3 achieved net profit of 1.17-125 million yuan, an increase of 40-50% over the previous year; Q3 achieved net profit of 41.1397 million yuan to 49.4847 million yuan in a single quarter, an increase of 23.35%-48.38% over the previous year. The growth rate of net profit for the first three quarters slightly exceeded expectations, and both new and existing businesses contributed to performance. The company's Q1-3 net profit growth rate slightly exceeded our previous forecast of 33%. The continued high performance in the third quarter was mainly due to the promotion of upgraded versions of next-generation asset management systems and hosting systems and innovative PaaS business. By the end of 2017, the company had upgraded its asset management system from 3.0 to 4.5 and the escrow system from 3.0 to 5.0. We expect 50%/70%/80% of stock asset management and escrow customers to purchase their next-generation systems by the end of 2018/2019/2020, respectively. The PaaS business is progressing steadily, and the synergy with traditional business is gradually showing. Beginning at the end of 2017, the company has begun promoting PaaS container cloud platform services based on microservice architecture to its existing customers. Currently, the PaaS business has several successful cases of insurance asset management and bank customers. As a microservice architecture design implementer, the company provides model selection references for products on the customer's PaaS platform, which strongly drives sales of the company's existing products (TA, valuation, report management, asset allocation, etc.), and the synergy effect is obvious. The positive effects of the new asset management regulations and Shanghai-Luntong will gradually be unleashed in the future. Since the first three quarters are in anticipation of new asset management regulations, IT system construction requirements have not yet been reflected. It is expected that starting from Q4, the successive establishment of some bank financial management subsidiaries will bring about asset management system transformation and construction requirements for bank customers. According to the Shanghai Luntong schedule, the earliest opening time for Shanghai Luntong is around the beginning of December. At that time, asset management institutions and custodian institutions will add corresponding valuation module purchase requirements. Therefore, it is expected that starting in the fourth quarter, the implementation of the new asset management regulations and Shanghai-Luntong will also bring a certain degree of benefit. Maintain profit forecasts and ratings: The company's PaaS container cloud innovation business is expected to become the main engine of performance growth, contributing 700 million dollars in revenue over the next three years. The EPS for 2018-2020 is expected to be 0.38/0.57/0.74 yuan, respectively, and the current stock price corresponding to PE is 30/20/16 times, respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating. Risk warning: Traditional products and PaaS products belong to different teams, and the development process may be accompanied by changes in equity and management integration.

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