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科恒股份(300340):格力(银隆)订单预计Q4确认收入 后续订单可期

東吳證券 ·  Oct 19, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points signed a memorandum of understanding with Gree. It is estimated that Q4 confirms that the total revenue of the contract signed between Haoneng Technology and Gree in April 2017 is 372 million (the original 99 million mixing equipment was purchased from Wanhao Wanjia; now the acquisition has failed. After deduction, Haoneng's contract amount should be 273 million). Currently, the supply of spare parts, which accounts for about 10% of the contract (Haoneng and Wanjia), has been cancelled, and the total contract amount (Haoneng+Wanjia) has been adjusted to 277 million. According to our estimates, after deducting Wanjiahe's spare parts, Haoneng's contract amount is about 85% of the original order. Gree will issue an acceptance report before November 20 and pay with a commercial acceptance bill within 10 days. At that time, operating cash flow will be effectively improved. Due to a lot of negative news from Yinlong, the market previously expected all Gree (Yinlong) orders to account for bad debts. After the current price adjustment, the net interest rate for the order is expected to be 10%, which is better than market expectations. Furthermore, the total number of contracts signed by the company with Gree in June 2016, August, October, and April 2017 is 343 million. The amount will not change, and now the revenue is basically confirmed. Bidding for industry orders has entered an inflection point, and high growth in company orders can be expected to enter an inflection point. CATL expects to bid for 24 lines this year. Haoneng has announced that Qiandao coaters have won more than 360 million bids. Times SAIC Motor's 36GW project was recently launched. It is expected that tenders for 10 lines may begin at the end of the year, and 10 lines will be tendered in the first half of '19. Furthermore, with the implementation of the double credit system, we are optimistic that overseas battery leaders LG, Samsung, Panasonic, and Tesla will build factories in China, corresponding to the 2018-2020 equipment investment exceeding 70 billion yuan. Haoneng is expected to seize the opportunity and become the leader in advanced equipment. Profit forecast and investment rating: We expect the net profit for 2018-2020 to be 0.8/111/160 million respectively, corresponding to the current stock price PE of 31/22/15X, and continue to maintain the “buy” rating. Risk warning: The expansion of lithium battery production has fallen short of expectations; industry competition has intensified.

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