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北汽蓝谷(600733)深度研究:中国蓝谷 卫蓝十年

BAIC Blue Valley (600733) In-depth Research: Ten Years of Weilan, China's Blue Valley

方正證券 ·  Oct 8, 2018 00:00  · Researches

China's Blue Valley, ten years since Wei Lan. In 2009, BAIC New Energy was established, and Shenbao EV electric vehicles based on the Saab 9-5 platform and modified for domestic passenger cars in the Shenbao D series were launched, including models such as the E150 EV160 and EV200. At present, it has launched a series of models including EC, EV, EU, ES, EX, EH, etc., covering all markets from A00 to SUVs. At the same time, the company has taken advantage of the development opportunities of intelligent and connected cars to launch LITE mini cars, create personal intelligent travel solutions, and make steady progress towards smart car fields such as autonomous driving.

It has won the top sales of pure electric vehicles for the fifth year in a row. From January to August 2018, BAIC's NEV market sales volume was 70118 units, an increase of 67% over the previous year. While ranking first in pure electric vehicle sales during the same period, it has been at the top of China's pure electric vehicle sales list for five consecutive years.

In 2017, the EC series sold a total of 7,8079 units worldwide, making it the most sold pure electric model in the world.

Open sharing strategy, deeply tied to the industrial chain. BAIC New Energy lays out the entire industry chain by participating in suppliers or setting up component subsidiaries. It cooperates and binds with industrial chain enterprises such as Taiyang Electric, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Telaidian, Siemens, and Kangde Group, and is deeply involved in R&D, production and sales throughout the industrial chain.

Hummingbird plans, full coverage of market segments. The Hummingbird Plan is the first technology strategy released after BAIC New Energy's 13th Five-Year Strategic Plan. Through the improvement of the overall technology+product strategy, in the future, the company will build the world's richest NEV product matrix based on the four core technologies and two platforms, and plans to create 12 products in 2020 to achieve full coverage of the pure electric vehicle market segment.

The EC series continues the national car legend. In the first batch of EV-TEST tests, the BAIC EC180 received the best score of 4 stars in the mini car group and 100 points in the electricity consumption assessment. The BAIC EC3's 261-kilometer range is cost-effective. The front face is also a typical family design style, and the overall effect is sporty and stylish. Following the great success of the EC series, BAIC New Energy launched LITE, targeting the post-80s and post-90s tax groups, and continued to explore the potential of the mini car market.

Investment advice. Excluding the impact of the merger schedule, we expect the net profit of BAIC New Energy to its mother in 2018-2020 to be 1.47/570/1,638 million yuan, and the corresponding PE is 217/56/20X respectively. Give recommendations a rating.

Risk warning: BAIC's NEV sales fell short of expectations; subsidies fell beyond expectations; major changes in NEV policy

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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