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科恒股份(300340):控股股东质押风险解除 后续设备订单可期

東吳證券 ·  Oct 22, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Incident: The controlling shareholder, Mr. Wan Guojiang, and Jiangmen Financial Investment Holdings Co., Ltd. signed a “Letter of Intent to Support and Assistance”. Jiangmen Financial Holdings will provide liquidity support to Mr. Wan Guojiang through entrustment loans, transfer of stock pledge claims, and transfer of shares to mitigate his short-term capital risks. Key investment points: Local state-owned assets have provided assistance, and the controlling shareholder's pledge risk has been lifted. Up to now, Wan Guojiang, the controlling shareholder of the company and his co-actors, has held a total of 49.94 million shares (accounting for 23.5% of the total share capital), of which a total of 48.27 million shares have been pledged, accounting for 96.7% of the shares held. As the market continues to be sluggish recently, the company's stock price is close to the pledged liquidation line, and there is a high risk of liquidity. Jiangmen Financial Holdings is a financial platform owned by the state-owned assets of Jiangmen City. We believe that the signing of the “Letter of Intent to Support and Assistance” this time is expected to increase the capital liquidity of Keheng's controlling shareholders and mitigate the potential risks of equity pledges. Gree (Yinlong) orders expect Q4 to confirm revenue on the evening of October 17. The company announced the signing of a memorandum of understanding with Gree on the evening of October 17, adjusting the contract amount of 372 million yuan signed in April 2017 to 277 million (Haoneng+Wanjia). According to our estimates, after deducting Wanjiahe's spare parts, Haoneng's contract amount is about 85% of the original order. Gree will issue an acceptance report before November 20 and pay with a commercial acceptance bill within 10 days. At that time, operating cash flow will be effectively improved. Due to a lot of negative news from Yinlong, the market previously expected all Gree (Yinlong) orders to account for bad debts. Now, after adjustments, the net order interest rate is 10%, which is better than market expectations. Bidding for industry orders has entered an inflection point, and high growth in company orders can be expected to enter an inflection point. CATL expects to bid for 24 lines this year. Haoneng has announced that Qiandao coaters have won more than 360 million bids. Times SAIC Motor's 36GW project was recently launched. It is expected that tenders for 10 lines may begin at the end of the year, and 10 lines will be tendered in the first half of '19. Furthermore, with the implementation of the double credit system, we are optimistic that overseas battery leaders LG, Samsung, Panasonic, and Tesla will build factories in China, corresponding to the 2018-2020 equipment investment exceeding 70 billion yuan. Haoneng is expected to seize the opportunity and become the leader in advanced equipment. Profit forecast and investment rating: We expect the company's net profit for 2018-2020 to be 0.8/111/160 million respectively, corresponding to the current stock price PE of 31/22/16X, maintaining the “buy” rating. Risk warning: The expansion of lithium battery production has fallen short of expectations; industry competition has intensified.

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