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河北建设(1727.HK):享受京津冀带来的机遇

招銀國際 ·  Sep 19, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Seize the development opportunities of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration. The total amount of uncompleted contracts of the company increased from 67.3 billion yuan (RMB, same below) in December 2017 to 70.8 billion yuan in June 2018. Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei remains the company's main market. 60.9% of the outstanding contract value is located in this region. We are optimistic about the development value of the company in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. In the long run, 1) Under the integration of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Province, there is still a lot of room for improvement in the urbanization rate of Hebei; 2) Construction of Xiong'an New Area is progressing steadily, and some projects have already been implemented, so we look forward to more projects starting construction in the future; in the short term, 3) there is an acceleration trend in infrastructure investment recently. Since July, governments at all levels have introduced measures to increase financing for infrastructure projects through bond issuance and loans to speed up the construction of existing projects and approval of new projects. In fact, Hebei Construction has made some progress in Xiong'an, and has invested in seven construction projects in the region. Accelerate the development of prefabricated business. In 2015, Hebei Construction was approved as the “Hebei Housing Industry Modernization Base”, becoming the first housing industry modernization base in Hebei Province integrating steel structures with PC (precast concrete) structures and building components. In 2014, the company invested in the construction of the first PC production line in Hebei Green Building Industrial Park in Qingyuan County, Baoding. Currently, the PC project workshop has a construction area of 17,000 square meters and can accommodate two automated PC production lines. The production capacity of the prefabricated parts assembly line is 80,000 square meters (construction area), and the prefabrication rate can reach 30% to 50%. Management said the company plans to expand existing production capacity and seek to build a new PC factory in the Baoding region. We believe the company's assembly business can benefit from Xiong'an's high construction requirements and take advantage of the distance between its PC factory and Xiong'an. Looking forward to more PPP projects. The company strategically increased investment in PPP projects to undertake more infrastructure projects. Compared to housing construction, the contract amount for infrastructure projects is larger, and the profit margin is higher. Previously, the company's PPP business was relatively small. However, the company has gradually expanded the scale of PPP projects, and the project shareholding ratio has also increased to 75-90%, and is selectively bidding for PPP projects. The company expects revenue from the PPP model to account for 10% of revenue in 2018. Maintain the buy rating. In the first half of '18, the company's net profit increased 9.6% to 551 million yuan. The net profit margin rose from 2.5% in the first half of '17 to 2.9% in the first half of '18. In the first half of '18, housing construction accounted for 67.0% of total construction revenue. We believe that there is still a lot of room for growth in the infrastructure business, and there is room for profit margin improvement. We adjusted our earnings forecasts for fiscal year 18 and 19 to $1,165 million and $1,284 million, respectively. We selected 8 Hong Kong listed construction companies for our industry comparison. The average price-earnings ratio of FY18/19 in the industry was 6.9/6.1 times. Using FY19 earnings as the valuation basis, and referring to the average price-earnings ratio of our peers, our target price is HK$5.06. Maintain the buy rating.

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