Weichuang shares (002308) report comments: the income of preschool education increases by 28%. The increase in costs leads to a decline in short-term profits.

上海證券 · Sep 1, 2018 00:00 · Researches

公司动态事项

公司发布2018半年报，上半年实现营收5.21亿元，同比增长9.70%，实现归属净利润9607万元，同比下降7.41%，扣非后归属净利润6981万元，同比下降21.30%，EPS为0.11元/股。

事项点评

幼教收入同增28%，成本费用增加致短期盈利下降

分业务看，上半年VW 业务收入2.79 亿元，同比下降2.51%，其中国外市场销售收入同比减少，毛利率下降4.41pct 至49.42%；幼教业务收入2.42 亿元，同比增长28.27%，毛利率下降2.30pct 至57.36%，主要系新增并表范围及业务扩张导致人工成本增加，幼教收入占比同比提升6.71pct 至46.38%。分季度看，Q1/Q2 公司营收增速分别为20.02%、3.39%，季度增速放缓。受各业务毛利率下滑影响，公司综合毛利率下降3.04pct 至53.10%；公司销售/管理/财务费用率分别为11.72%（-1.94pct）、26.39%（+2.60pct）、0.76%（+0.85pct），管理费用增加主要系职工薪酬、管理咨询及物业综合费增加，期间费用率合计较去年同期增加1.52pct。综合影响下，公司归属净利率同比下降3.41pct 至18.45%。公司预计2018 年1-9 月实现归属净利润1.05 亿元-1.58 亿元，同比下降10%-40%，主要系幼教加大人才建设、平台和产品研发等推高成本费用及VW 业务订单交付集中在Q4，Q3 收入预计下降。

红缨教育内部调整阵痛期，金色摇篮新业务发展态势良好

公司幼教稳步发展，期末旗下幼儿园数量接近5200 家。（1）红缨教育积极内部调整、升级品牌、探索高端幼儿园“托管式加盟”的“新红缨”项目，上半年实现收入9337 万元，同比下降6.77%，主要系上半年主动暂缓连锁加盟业务、减缓悠久品牌代理商开发、淘汰联系不紧密加盟园等导致加盟服务收入同比下降17.65%；商品销售业务与去年基本持平，其中悠久代理销售客单价同比增长17.57%至13.92 万元。“新红缨”仍处于孵化期，成本投入较大，导致整体盈利能力下降，上半年实现净利润1250 万元，同比下降54.38%，净利率约为13.38%（-13.96pct）。（2）金色摇篮上半年实现收入1.10 亿元，同比增长24.28%，增速放缓，主要系服务业务收入增速降至11.70%，其中托管园校因装修改造导致可贡献收入下降，政策因素等导致客户无法获得办园场所致幼儿园品牌加盟收入下降。新开拓的安特思库幼小衔接实现收入2295 万元，同比增长108.27%；早教收入361.79 万元，同比增长56.78%，发展态势良好。商品销售业务收入增长124.04%，主要系安特思库幼小衔接和加盟幼儿园的商品销售快速增长。上半年，金色摇篮实现净利润5160 万元，同比下降8.19%，主要系员工数量增加及人均薪酬上涨导致人员成本费用快速增加，净利率约为47.10%（-16.66pct）。（3）可儿教育（持股70%）上半年实现收入2908 万元、净利润2111 万元，探索深度托管新业务。（4）鼎奇幼教（持股70%）上半年实现收入1300 万元、净利润737 万元，加速推进托管和加盟业务，深耕内蒙古区域。（5）5 月公司投资“芝麻街英语”，跨入少儿英语赛道，拟在共建直营店、幼儿园引进优质英语教学内容等方面深入合作，完善幼教产业生态。芝麻街英语累积学员超过5 万余人次。此外，公司构建智慧幼教“云+端”赋能体系，现已覆盖红缨超过50%的连锁加盟园，家园共育平台用户达近90 万，其他板块下半年将在旗下园所实施和推广，B2B2C 数字化产品体系初步形成。

投资建议

由于红缨教育业绩不及预期、金色摇篮增速放缓且VW 业务下滑，暂不考虑凯瑞联盟投资影响，我们调整盈利预测，预计2018-2020 年公司归属净利润分别为2.05/2.39/2.64 亿元，对应EPS 分别为0.23/0.26/0.29 元，对应PE 分别为34/29/26 倍（按2018/8/30 收盘价计算）。公司红缨教育内部积极结构调整，短期业绩承压，未来品牌升级完成有望逐步恢复盈利水平；金色摇篮业务拓展致人工成本上涨，随着规模效应体现预计盈利将有所回升。公司持续在幼教产业布局，投资凯瑞联盟完善线下幼教生态，并积极开展幼教信息化建设。中长期看好公司未来幼教发展，暂维持“增持”评级。

风险提示

政策风险、市场竞争加剧风险、幼儿园运营管理风险、收购整合风险等。

Company dynamic events

The company released its 2018 semi-annual report, with revenue of 521 million yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 9.70% over the same period last year, a net profit of 96.07 million yuan, a decrease of 7.41%, and a net profit of 69.81 million yuan after deducting non-profit, a decrease of 21.30% per share.

Comments on matters

The income of preschool education increased by 28%, and the increase in costs led to a decline in short-term profits.

In terms of business, VW business revenue in the first half of the year was 279 million yuan, down 2.51% from the same period last year, of which the sales revenue in foreign markets decreased, and the gross profit margin decreased by 4.41pct to 49.42%. The revenue of preschool education business was 242 million yuan, an increase of 28.27% over the same period last year, and the gross profit margin decreased by 2.30pct to 57.36%. This was mainly due to the increase in labor costs caused by the new consolidation scope and business expansion, and the proportion of preschool education income increased by 6.71pct to 46.38% compared with the same period last year. On a quarterly basis, Q1/Q2 's revenue growth rate was 20.02% and 3.39% respectively, and the quarterly growth rate slowed down. Affected by the decline in the gross profit margin of each business, the company's comprehensive gross profit margin decreased by 3.04pct to 53.10%. The company's sales / management / financial expense rates were 11.72% (- 1.94pct), 26.39% (+ 2.60pct) and 0.76% (+ 0.85pct), respectively. The increase in management expenses was mainly due to the increase in staff salaries, management consulting and comprehensive property fees, and the total expense rate increased 1.52pct over the same period last year. Under the combined influence, the company's vested net interest rate fell by 3.41pct to 18.45% compared with the same period last year. The company expects to achieve a net profit of 105 million yuan to 158 million yuan from January to September 2018, down 10% to 40% compared with the same period last year. This is mainly due to increased costs for early childhood education, such as talent construction, platform and product research and development, and VW business order delivery focused on Q4Jing Q3 revenue is expected to decline.

During the pain period of internal adjustment of Hongying education, the new business of golden cradle is developing well.

The company's preschool education has developed steadily, with the number of kindergartens approaching 5200 at the end of the term. (1) Hongying Education actively adjusts internally, upgrades its brand and explores the "New Hongying" project of high-end kindergarten "managed franchise". The income in the first half of the year was 93.37 million yuan, down 6.77% from the same period last year. This is mainly due to the initiative to suspend the chain business in the first half of the year, slow down the development of long-standing brand agents, and eliminate the lack of close ties to join the park, which led to a 17.65% decline in franchise service revenue compared with the same period last year. The commodity sales business is basically the same as last year, of which the unit price of long-standing agent sales increased by 17.57% year-on-year to 139200 yuan. "Xinhongying" is still in the incubation period, and the cost input is relatively large, resulting in a decline in overall profitability. The net profit in the first half of the year was 12.5 million yuan, down 54.38% from the same period last year, and the net interest rate was about 13.38% (- 13.96pct). (2) the income of Golden Cradle reached 110 million yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 24.28% over the same period last year, and the growth rate slowed down, mainly because the growth rate of service business income dropped to 11.70%. Policy factors and other factors led to the decline of kindergarten brand joining income caused by customers' lack of access to the park. The newly developed Antesku achieved an income of 22.95 million yuan, an increase of 108.27% over the same period last year, and the income of early education was 3.6179 million yuan, an increase of 56.78% over the same period last year. Revenue from merchandise sales increased by 124.04%, mainly due to the rapid growth of commodity sales in Anteku and kindergartens. In the first half of the year, the golden cradle achieved a net profit of 51.6 million yuan, down 8.19% from the same period last year, mainly due to a rapid increase in personnel costs caused by an increase in the number of employees and per capita salary, with a net interest rate of about 47.10% (- 16.66pct). (3) Keer Education (70% shareholding) achieved an income of 29.08 million yuan and a net profit of 21.11 million yuan in the first half of the year, exploring new deep trusteeship business. (4) Dingqi early Childhood Education (70% shareholding) achieved an income of 13 million yuan and a net profit of 7.37 million yuan in the first half of the year, accelerating the promotion of trusteeship and joining business and ploughing Inner Mongolia. (5) in May, the company invested in Sesame Street English, stepped into the children's English track, and planned to make in-depth cooperation in the co-construction of direct stores and the introduction of high-quality English teaching content in kindergartens to improve the ecology of preschool education industry. Sesame Street English students accumulated more than 50,000 person-times. In addition, the company has built an intelligent preschool education "cloud + end" enabling system, which now covers more than 50% of the chain joining parks, and the home co-education platform has nearly 900000 users. Other sectors will be implemented and promoted in its parks in the second half of the year, and the B2B2C digital product system has initially taken shape.

Investment suggestion

Due to the lower-than-expected performance of Hongying education, the slowdown of the growth rate of the golden cradle and the decline of VW business, regardless of the impact of Carrey's investment, we adjust our profit forecast and estimate that the company's vested net profit from 2018 to 2020 will be 2.05x239 EPS 0.29RMB respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 34-29-26 (calculated according to the closing price on 2018-8-30). The company Hongying education internal positive structural adjustment, short-term performance under pressure, the future brand upgrade is expected to gradually return to profitability; golden cradle business expansion led to rising labor costs, profits are expected to pick up as the scale effect reflects. The company continues to lay out the industry of preschool education, invests in Carrey Alliance to improve the ecology of offline preschool education, and actively carries out the information construction of preschool education. In the medium and long term, we are optimistic about the future development of preschool education in the company and maintain the "overweight" rating for the time being.

Risk hint

Policy risk, market competition aggravating risk, kindergarten operation and management risk, acquisition integration risk and so on.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

威创股份(002308)中报点评：幼教收入同增28% 成本费用增加致短期盈利下降

Weichuang shares (002308) report comments: the income of preschool education increases by 28%. The increase in costs leads to a decline in short-term profits.

Risk Disclaimer

Statement