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电子城(600658)调研简报:产业服务优势增强 积极外拓前景可期

東興證券 ·  Sep 14, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Report summary: Industrial real estate has great potential under industrial upgrading. As China's economy moves from a stage of rapid growth to a stage of high-quality development, optimizing the economic structure and promoting industrial upgrading is the general trend. From the two dimensions of industrial upgrading and urbanization, we are optimistic about the future performance of industrial real estate, especially industrial real estate that serves new economy industries such as technology. From the perspective of industrial upgrading, industrial real estate plays an important role in attracting scientific and technological innovation enterprises by improving the production environment and providing sufficient and diverse facilities; from the perspective of urbanization, industrial development is expected to become a more important driving force for urbanization in the future, and industrial real estate has great potential. The company focuses on technology industry services, and its competitive advantage continues to increase. The company has focused on technology industry services for many years, accumulated rich experience and customer resources, and formed a strong brand effect. Beijing Electronic Control and Lenovo Holdings rank among the top and second largest shareholders, and their abundant resources help the company's long-term development. While focusing on the development, operation and service of science and technology industrial parks, the company is actively investing in two models of heavy assets. Actively promote “industry-city integration” and science and technology education services. The impact of regulatory policies is small, and the level of profit is guaranteed. In the context of strict regulation, the profit margins of traditional housing development businesses are being suppressed, and future gross sales margins may face downside risks. The company's products are mainly industrial real estate in science and technology parks. The probability and intensity of rising land prices and pressure on sales prices are relatively small. In addition, the company's products themselves have a high level of gross margin and net profit margin, strong impact resistance, and guaranteed profit levels. Company profit forecasts and investment ratings. We expect the company's 2018-2020 revenue to be 3.75 billion yuan, 6.08 billion yuan and 9.18 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 0.79 yuan, 0.91 yuan and 1.53 yuan, respectively, and corresponding PE of 6.1 times, 5.2 times and 3.1 times, respectively. We gave the company 12 times PE, and the stock price corresponding to earnings per share in 2018 was 9.5 yuan. First coverage, giving a “recommended” rating. Risk warning: Nationalized expansion falls short of expectations, operating cash flow tends to be tight, and sales and repayments fall short of expectations.

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