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金地商置(00535.HK):8月销售增长稳健

東吳證券 ·  Sep 13, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Incident, Jindi Commercial Investment announced operating data for August 2018: in August, it achieved contract sales of about 4,064 million yuan, contract sales area of 165,200 square meters, average sales price of 24,600 yuan/square meter; from January to August 2018, the company achieved cumulative contract sales of 24.37 billion yuan and a sales area of 1.0547 million square meters. The average sales price of reviews continued to be high, driving a 20% increase in sales volume in August. The company's contract sales in August were about 4,064 million yuan, up 20% year on year; contract sales area was 165,200 square meters, down 14% year on year; average sales price was 24,600 yuan/square meter, up 40% year on year. The company's marketing structure changed in August, and the average monthly sales price continued to be high, driving a considerable increase in sales volume. Judging from the cumulative data, from January to August 2018, the cumulative contract sales volume was 24.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16%; the cumulative contract sales area was 1.0547 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 32%. There was little saleable value in the first half of 2018, resulting in a 29% year-on-year decline in the cumulative sales amount for the first half of the year. The company's monthly sales volume growth rate was impressive in July and August, and the year-on-year decline in cumulative sales volume in August continued to narrow by 5 percentage points. It is expected that the company's promotion pace will accelerate, and sales improvements can be expected. Land acquisition is active, and land reserves are abundant. The company added 8 new projects in the first half of the year, with a total planned construction area of 941,000 square meters, a total acquisition price of 9.572 billion yuan, and an average equity cost of 10,200 yuan/square meter. As of the end of June 2018, the company's cumulative land reserves reached 13.42 million square meters, an increase of 11% over the previous year, and a layout in more than 20 cities. Looking at the distribution of urban energy levels, first-tier cities account for about 21.3% of land reserves. The level of leverage is steady, and financing costs remain low. The company's total bank and other loans in the first half of the year were $1,986 billion, with annual interest rates in the range of 3.0% to 4.3%. The company's net debt ratio was 40%, up 17 percentage points from the end of 2017, but the overall level remained low. Investment suggestion: Jindi commercial land acquisition outlook, focusing on core Tier 1 and 2 cities. Land reserves are abundant and costs are low. Currently, the land reserve scale is close to 14 million square meters. Affected by the promotion structure, the company's sales growth is expected to accelerate. At the same time, the company also holds a large number of high-quality properties in core cities, and also has a large number of properties under construction. Rental income will continue to rise in the future. We expect the company's EPS in 2018-2020 to be 0.19, 0.25, and 0.32 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE to be 3.1, 2.4, and 1.9 times, respectively. Risk warning: industry sales fluctuations; business risks due to policy adjustments (shed reform, regulation, tax policies, etc.); changes in the financing environment (mortgages, development loans, interest rate adjustments, etc.); business operation risks (personnel changes, construction, land acquisition, etc.); exchange rate fluctuation risk.

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