This report is read as follows:
The growth of the company's performance against the trend is mainly due to the excellent self-management performance and the counter-trend growth of investment banking performance; in the follow-up, it will benefit from the advantages of the main business of non-performing assets of the major shareholder Oriental assets, and the collaborative business is huge, which is expected to make a positive contribution to the company's diversified income.
Main points of investment:
Maintain the "overweight" rating, due to the downward revision of the valuation center of the industry, it will be given 2 times PB in 2018, lowering the target price to 14.85 yuan per share. The company's 2018H1 realized revenue / return net profit of 1.470 trillion yuan, which was 1.99% higher than that of the same period last year, and its net asset of 19.608 billion yuan was 2.02% higher than that at the end of last year. Maintain the company's EPS of 0.52, 0.58 and 0.69 yuan from 2018 to 2020. The current valuation has reflected the pessimistic expectations of the market, which is expected to be repaired in the future and maintain the "overweight" rating.
Excellent proprietary performance is the biggest plus, and investment banks are growing against the trend. ① proprietary performance is eye-catching, steady and prudent asset allocation and better fixed revenue performance are the main additional items, and the scale of fixed income allocation is expected to continue to make efforts in the future: self-operating income during the reporting period is + 60% year on year, accounting for 65.15% of income, the scale of fixed income has increased, and the parent company's self-income / net assets (193.51%) has greatly increased 48.05pct compared with the end of last year. ② investment banking business is growing against the trend, mainly due to good projects and talent reserves. Sufficient project reserves will release performance: investment banking income during the reporting period was + 14.6% compared with the same period last year, accounting for 23.76% of the total income. The net income ranking of investment banks rose 8 places to 13th compared with last year, and the company ranked 11th among the 49 IPO industries as of the end of August. ③ credit business income grew strongly, and a sharp increase in bond interest expenses dragged down net interest income: net interest income during the reporting period was-375 million, down 322 million from the same period last year, mainly due to total cost-side interest expenditure + 50% year-on-year, and stock pledge interest income + 18% year-on-year.
The company will benefit from the major shareholder Oriental assets non-performing assets main business advantages, the follow-up is expected to seize the opportunity of counter-cyclical growth, in the project promotion, co-contracting, financing arrangements and other aspects of business coordination, to bring positive contribution to the company's income diversification.
Catalyst: the landing of relevant innovation business; the improvement of market activity; the marginal relaxation of regulatory policy.
Risk tips: innovation is not up to expectations; the stock market has fallen sharply; industry regulation has been strengthened.