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光明地产(600708)中报点评:销售业绩表现亮眼 夯实主业多元发展

中泰證券 ·  Aug 27, 2018 00:00  · Researches

In the first half of 2018, the company achieved revenue of 6.436 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.38%, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 835 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 220.71%, and an EPS of 0.37 yuan. The increase in profitability led to a sharp increase in performance. The company's net profit growth rate increased sharply in the first half of the year. On the one hand, the base for the same period last year was low (87% of net profit last year was concentrated in the second half of the year), and on the other hand, the improvement in gross margin and control efficiency: 1. With the successive carry-over of transaction projects during the industry recovery period in the past two years, the gross settlement margin of the real estate business increased by 22.45 percentage points to 40.72% year on year; 2. The company's management efficiency was further improved. The company's sales management expenses rate during the reporting period was 2.70%, narrowed by 0.32 percentage points year on year. In terms of sales, in the first half of 2018, the company achieved sales of 13.595 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.73%, and a sales area of 1,0701,000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 1.86%. Among them, it achieved high growth in the second quarter. The growth rates of sales and sales area in Q2 in 2018 were 49.6% and 22.2% respectively. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the company's saleable value is abundant (1,887,000 square meters in the first half of the year, a sharp increase of 204% over the previous year). Among them, the Yangtze River Delta is the main supply force. Combined with the current rebound trend in Tier 1 and 2 transactions, we believe the annual sales target is expected to reach 25 billion yuan. Diversified methods were used to expand resources, and the financial structure was further optimized. During the reporting period, the company fully integrated the resource advantages of all parties. In addition to bidding methods, it actively expanded resources through various means such as mergers and acquisitions and peer cooperation. In the first half of 2018, 760,900 square meters of land storage area was added, an increase of 1187% over the previous year. Judging from the land acquisition structure, close to 80% of the land reserves added in the first half of the year are still in the Yangtze River Delta (in terms of amount). In the future, the company will gradually form a basic layout where Shanghai accounts for 50%, Jiangsu and Zhejiang Yangtze River Delta accounts for 25%, and other key cities in the country account for 25%. Due to the company's relatively active land acquisition, the company's leverage ratio increased in the first half of the year. The net debt ratio at the mid-end of '18 was 160.81%, up 27.46 percentage points from the end of '17. In terms of financing, during the reporting period, the company actively explored innovative financing channels. Following the successful issuance of 880 million yuan of CMBS last year, it successfully registered 3.5 billion yuan of perpetual votes in the first half of the year and successfully issued the first phase of 600 million yuan; recently successfully registered 800 million yuan of winning votes and cooperated with Pacific Asset Management to establish a debt investment plan of 430 million yuan; at the same time, major shareholders and related parties plan to provide loan support of no more than 204 billion yuan during the year, thus providing financial support for the future development of the enterprise. Actively explore transformation and accelerate multi-industry collaboration and integration across multiple business sectors in addition to real estate. With the support of group resources, the company will actively utilize the advantages of existing diversified industries, cultivate new growth points for enterprises, and promote collaborative development between industries, such as: 1. Business platforms. The company actively seeks market opportunities for the integration and collaboration of high-quality commercial resources, focusing on urban services and community activities, and linking online asset-light to offline asset-heavy physical support; 2. Cold chain logistics. Using industry and parks as carriers, the vitality of the logistics sector is stimulated through the organic combination of cold chain, cold storage, distribution and trade; 3. Property management. The company leverages existing brand reputation, operating community and resource advantages to upgrade service resources as the cornerstone of development, and expands the influence of property brands by integrating online and offline resources for common development. Profit forecasting and investment rating companies developed rapidly. Sales growth in the first half of 2018 remained high, while the cold chain logistics business had plenty of room for development. The company is rich in land reserves, with Shanghai as the core, and is actively expanding into surrounding second- and third-tier cities. We expect the EPS in 18/19 to be 0.84 yuan and 1.01 yuan, and the corresponding PE multiples are 4.92x and 4.09x, maintaining the “buy” rating. Risk warning events: Company sales fall short of expectations, industry regulation, and continued tightening of liquidity, etc.

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