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安信信托(600816)半年报点评:受权益市场拖累 上半年业绩下滑33%

Anxin Trust (600816) semi-annual report comments: dragged down by the equity market, performance fell 33% in the first half of the year.

海通證券 ·  Aug 27, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Investment points: private holding background, the mechanism is more flexible. Over the past 13 years, the company has returned to the main business of trust, the scale of trust has risen rapidly, and various rankings have risen rapidly. The company conforms to the development situation of the industry, actively promotes the transformation of business innovation, strives to make the active management bigger and stronger, and the trust return rate leads the industry. The reasonable value range is 6.53 million 7.94 yuan, which is rated as "better than the big city".

Event: Anxin Trust achieved operating income of 1.613 billion yuan in the first half of 2018, down 31.38% from the same period last year; net profit of 1.079 billion yuan, down 33.10% from the same period last year; corresponding to 0.2 yuan of EPS; operating income of 24 million yuan in the second quarter, down 98.5% from the previous quarter; and net profit of 23 million yuan, down 97.9% from the previous quarter. By the end of the first half of 2018, the company's total assets were 26.372 billion yuan, an increase of 4.96% over the beginning of the year, and its net assets were 14.865 billion yuan, down 8.19% from the beginning of the year.

"emphasis on the initiative, light on the channel", active management occupies a high position. In the first half of 2018, with the continued implementation of the deleveraging policy and strict restrictions on non-standard and channel business, the increment of social integration continued to decline. The cumulative increase in social finance in the first half of the year was 9.1 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.03 trillion yuan over the same period last year. Despite the grim situation in the industry, the company has always adhered to the strategy of "emphasizing the initiative and neglecting the channel" and laid out ahead of time. By the end of June, the size of trust assets was 251.636 billion yuan, an increase of 10% over the same period last year, of which active management business was 156 billion yuan, accounting for 62%. The proportion of active management declined slightly, but remained high. The company realized trust compensation income of 2.043 billion yuan in the first half of the year, down 11% from the same period last year. We expect the company's annualized trust return rate to be 1.6% (estimated to be about 1.9% in 2017).

Comply with the national policy and lay out new industries. By constantly improving the capital strength and quality, the company promotes the development of trust business and steadily promotes the status of trust main business. In recent years, in view of national policy and economic situation, the company has strategically laid out innovative areas such as urban renewal, high-end pension, modern agriculture, biomedicine and Internet infrastructure, and gradually made substantial progress. In the first half of 2018, more than 50% of the company's trust assets were invested in the industrial sector.

Affected by the poor performance of the equity market, the investment business lost more money in the second quarter. In the first half of 2018, the company achieved net interest income of 65 million yuan, down 38% from the same period last year. Investment income (including fair value) lost 549 million yuan, compared with 166 million yuan in the same period last year, mainly due to the poor performance of the equity market in the second quarter. In the first half of the year, the CSI 300 index fell 6.88%, and the gem index fell 6.33%.

Profit forecast and valuation. We expect the company to achieve operating income of RMB 38.17max 52.59 / 5.601 billion, compared with the same period last year. The net profit of the company is RMB 3.772 million, corresponding to EPS0.47/0.65/0.69 yuan, which is-32% and-32%, respectively, and the net profit is RMB 35.42 million. Using the comparable company valuation method, we gave the company a rating of "better than the market" in 2018 with a reasonable value range of 6.53-7.94 yuan.

Risk hint: the problem of rigid payment is still difficult to solve; the external environment is grim; supervision is constantly upgrading.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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