Investment highlights: Q2 performance growth has slowed, and the first three quarters are expected to grow by 10%-50%. 18H1's revenue was 1,380 million yuan, up 20.02% year on year, net profit was 130 million yuan, up 25.48% year on year, and net profit after deducting net profit was 122 million yuan, up 18.17% year on year because the company's traditional real estate business grew steadily, development work in the ecological and landscape municipal business was carried out in an orderly manner, and revenue and performance increased to a certain extent. On a quarterly basis, Q2 revenue increased 12.17% year on year, down 31.24 pp from the Q1 growth rate, and net profit from Q2 increased 22.80% year on year, down 25.81 pp from the Q1 growth rate. From January to September 2018, the company expects net profit to increase by 10%-50% year-on-year. There has been a slight increase in gross margin, and repayment still needs to be improved. The gross margin of 18H1 was 18.73%, up 0.19 pp from the previous year, and the period expense ratio increased by 0.70 pp to 7.00%, of which the financial expense ratio increased by 1.11 pp to 1.98%, mainly due to business development, increased loans, and a corresponding increase in interest and handling expenses; the management expense ratio decreased by 0.41 pp to 5.03%. We believe that it was mainly due to large-scale project implementation; net margin increased by 0.41 pp to 9.41%. In terms of cash flow, net operating cash flow was -128 million yuan, an increase of 57 million yuan from the 17H1 net outflow, a decrease of 9.32 pp to 58.90%, and the payout ratio decreased by 9.87 pp to 54.81%. There are many BT/PPP projects on the table, and the funds on hand are sufficient to ensure the implementation of the project. The company's PPP projects were mostly disposed of together. The long-term equity investment of the 18H1 parent company was 134 million yuan, long-term accounts receivable was 263 million yuan, the consolidated statement long-term equity investment was 34 million yuan, and long-term accounts receivable were 568 million yuan. The increase in long-term receivables was mostly due to BT/PPP project companies mergers. The company's projects have been implemented, and revenue is growing rapidly, but repayment still needs to be improved. The overall revenue ratio fell 9.32 pp to 58.90%, and accounts receivable increased 52.97% year over year to 680 million yuan. The company further consolidates and expands in new business directions, and focuses on selecting projects with good capital recovery expectations, actively abandons projects that take up a lot of capital and is uncertain about funding, and only continues to follow up on high-quality large-scale projects (including EPC and PPP projects). Furthermore, the company will increase investment, mergers and acquisitions and strategic cooperation in the fields of ecology, environmental protection, tourism, etc., so that investment enterprises and strategic partners and the company can complement each other's resources and develop together. In the first half of 2018, the company signed new orders of 3.139 billion yuan, 1.22 times the revenue in 2017, and there were plenty of orders. By the end of 18H1, the company had 933 million yuan in cash in hand, mainly due to the completion of the 841 million yuan allotment in April, and sufficient capital in hand; in addition, the company is also broadening funding sources through various means to ensure project implementation. Earnings forecasts and ratings. We expect the company's EPS in 18-19 to be 0.70 yuan and 0.98 yuan respectively. The company has sufficient orders, low debt ratio, large financing space, and allotment capital to effectively guarantee project implementation; in addition, PPP business share has increased, business structure has improved, and extended mergers and acquisitions have been added to improve the industrial chain, giving a price-earnings ratio of 14-15 times over 18 years, and a reasonable value range of 9.80-10.50 yuan, maintaining a “superior to the market” rating. Risk warning. Policy risk, repayment risk, economic downturn risk.
文科园林(002775)半年报点评:业绩增速放缓 资金充裕是亮点
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