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文科园林(002775)中报点评:业绩总体保持稳健 股份回购彰显信心

國金證券 ·  Aug 26, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Performance Review The Company's 2018 H1 revenue/net profit was 13.80/130 million yuan, +20.02%/25.48% over the same period last year. The overall performance of business analysis was steady, and the performance growth in North and Northeast China was impressive. In the first half of 2018, the company achieved operating income/net profit of net profit/ deduction of non-net profit of 13.80/1.30/122 million yuan, +20.02%/25.48%/18.17% year-on-year; by product, garden engineering business revenue was 1,326 billion yuan (accounting for 95% of total revenue), an increase of 18.8% over the previous year; by region, the performance of the Northeast and North China regions (3.08%/17.68% of revenue) increased significantly, +234%/364%, respectively. In addition, the company expects net profit from January to September 2018 to fluctuate between 1.90 million and 260 million yuan, an increase of 10%-50%. There was a slight increase in gross margin/net margin, and the financial expense ratio increased by 1.12pcts. The company's gross margin/net profit margin from January to June 2018 was 18.73%/9.41%, respectively, compared to +0.19pcts/+0.41pct in the same period last year, and the profit situation was stable. The fee rate for the period was 7%, +0.7 pcts year-on-year, and remained stable. The management fee rate and financial expense ratio were 5.03%/1.98%, respectively, -0.41%/+1.12% year-on-year. The increase in financial expenses was mainly due to increased interest and handling fee expenses during the reporting period. Operating cash flow improved in 2Q18, and the balance ratio declined sharply. During the reporting period, the company's net operating cash flow was 128 million yuan, mainly due to the net outflow of 237 million yuan in 2018Q1, and the net inflow of operating cash flow in 2Q18 of 109 million yuan; due to cash payments reached 135 million yuan, the company's net cash outflow from 2018 H1 investment activities was 110 million yuan. The company's net increase in cash and cash equivalents in the first half of 2018 was $674 million, mainly due to capital raised (net inflow of $859 million from fund-raising activities). The cash-on-to-cash ratio was 58.9%/67.5%, respectively, -9.32 pcts/-11.9 pcts year-on-year. Due to the implementation of allotment financing of 820 million yuan in March, the company's balance ratio at the end of June fell sharply to 34.76%, down 14.01 pcts from 2017 H1, far below the garden industry average of 68%, and asset quality improved. There are plenty of on-hand orders, and the repurchase of shares shows confidence. 1) The company signed a new order of 3.14 billion yuan in 2018 H1, 1.22 times the revenue ratio in 2017. As of the end of June, the total amount of signed and unfinished orders reached 5.97 billion yuan. The company has plenty of orders in hand, providing sufficient support for maintaining growth in performance; 2) The company's share repurchase plan through centralized bidding transactions with its own capital was approved by the shareholders' meeting. The company will buy back the company's shares with a total amount of 0.5-100 million yuan within half a year at a repurchase price of no more than 10 yuan/share. This repurchase is strong, fully demonstrating the strong confidence of management in the future development of the company. The investment recommendation predicts that the company's diluted EPS for 2018/2019 will be 0.63/0.80 yuan, giving the target price of 11.26 yuan for the next 6-12 months, corresponding to 18/14 times the PE valuation in 2018/2019. Risk warning: risk of bad receivables, risk of PPP falling short of expectations, macroeconomic policy risk.

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