Core viewpoints
The company released the report: in the first half of 18 years, the company achieved operating income of 87592.2 million yuan / + 1.43%, net profit of 7779.2 million yuan / + 1.29%, performance growth slightly higher than the previous performance KuaiBao.
The expansion of new stores has made a comeback, and changes are under way: under the influence of eight regulations and industry fluctuations, the company has not expanded any new direct stores in the past few years. In the second half of 17, the company seized the opportunity of food recovery in first-tier cities to seek the layout of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and the Yangtze River Delta. In 17 and the first half of 18, the company added 7 / 2 direct stores (2 in Beijing and 4 in the Yangtze River Delta), and is expected to open stores in the second half of the year. The number of stores for the whole year is expected to be the same as last year. After many years, the company has returned to open a new store and opened a fast lane, reflecting its confidence in the recovery of the industry. As the new stores opened in 17 years are mainly concentrated in Q4, it is expected that the 18-year mid-year report does not fully reflect the thickening of the company's performance, and the future growth is expected as the new stores gradually mature.
Sub-regional point of view: the rapid growth of the Yangtze River Delta pull the company obviously. The company achieved revenue of 89674.2 million yuan / + 0.24% in Beijing, and it is expected that some old stores may decline slightly in the same store due to old stores, transformation and other reasons. Compared with the lower company's revenue of 12697.4 million yuan / + 14.8% in East China, it is expected that the upgraded store model actively promoted in new stores by the company taking East China as a pilot has better catered to the upgrading needs of consumers, resulting in a significant increase in same-store revenue in the Yangtze River Delta. Revenue rebounded at the same time, the expense rate of the three periods decreased compared with the same period last year (1.1pct), and the company's strict control of costs and expenses is beginning to be effective. We believe that with the upgrading of stores in the Yangtze River Delta and the deepening of cost control, it is expected to provide continuous momentum for the company's follow-up performance growth.
There is plenty of cash on paper, and there is still plenty of room for extension to expand the imagination. By the end of June 18, the company's monetary funds had reached 47100.9 million yuan / + 9.3%. Abundant cash provided a strong guarantee and imagination space for the company's extension. Despite the termination of the acquisition of Tangcheng Chef, we believe that the previous intention to acquire Tangcheng Chef has reflected that the company is actively looking for the direction of extension, whether in the main catering business or food and other related fields. it is expected to open up a new space for the company's growth, which is worth paying attention to.
Financial forecasts and investment suggestions
Due to the increase in the expense rate in 17 years, we slightly increase the expense rate hypothesis. It is estimated that the eps in 18-20 years will be 0.49max 0.55max 0.62 yuan (the original 0.56 PE in 19 years), with an average of 40 times PE in 8 years (excluding 15 years), corresponding to the target price of 19.60 yuan (originally 22.50 yuan).
Risk hint
Food safety problems, rising cost pressure, lower-than-expected extension and so on.