Event: on August 20, the company released its 2018 semi-annual report. During the reporting period, the company achieved operating income of 2.553 billion yuan, an increase of 54.81% over the same period last year. The net profit of returning to the mother was 53.083 million yuan, an increase of 214.72% and 0.099 yuan over the same period last year. The net profit after deducting non-return was 22.934 million yuan, an increase of 146.86% over the same period last year.
According to the company announcement and the price data of Boya Hexun and Waterfowl Network, the company's duck product income in the first half of 18 was 710 million yuan, an increase of 28.89%. The sales volume of the company's duck products is expected to be about 70,000 tons, an increase of about 12%. The average price of duck products increased by about 17%. In the first half of 18 years, the company's duck seedling income was 218 million yuan, an increase of 142%. Among them, the company's duck seedling sales are expected to be 61 million, an increase of about 30%, and the average price of duck seedlings is about 110%. In addition, in the first half of 18, the business income of Xintang Down, a subsidiary of the company, increased by 95.84%. In addition, the scope of consolidated statements was added, and the transfer of investment real estate achieved a non-recurrent profit and loss of 43.9081 million. Therefore, we believe that the rise in duck seedling prices in the first half of 18 years, the rapid development of down business and non-recurrent income are the main reasons for the high growth of operating income and net profit of the company.
The income growth and profit elasticity in the second half of 18 years mainly depend on the duck price, so we focus on judging the trend of duck price in the second half of the year and dismantling the branch duck seedling and frozen duck business:
According to the data of China White Feather Meat Duck Association, the rapid decline of reserve ancestral duck stock from November to December in 17 years led to a rapid decline in maternal parent stock from May to June in 18 years. In the first half of 18 years, the stock of birth parents continued to decline compared with the same period last year, and duck prices showed a medium-and long-term trend. The off-season market in the second quarter of 18 years has been realized. if seasonal factors are added, the price high is likely to appear in the third quarter, and the average price of duck seedlings in the third quarter is expected to reach more than 4.5 yuan per feather, and the current price has reached 4.8 yuan per feather. then the price high is expected to exceed the 2014 high of 5.5 yuan per feather, superimposed by the expectation that environmental protection will continue to be stricter this year, and the high price expected by the market will probably exceed the all-time high.
Summer and autumn is the peak season of traditional duck consumption. According to the price data of waterfowl net, Boya and Xun duck products, the price of duck products increased by 2000 yuan per ton in August 17, and 1700 yuan per ton from July to August in 18 years. According to the company's financial report, we expect the price of frozen ducks to reach 9850 yuan / ton in the first quarter, 10300 yuan / ton in the second quarter, and 11000 yuan / ton in the third quarter. Combined with the impact of the recent African classical swine fever epidemic on pork supply and demand, the alternative demand for poultry meat is expected to be stimulated. We believe that the price of frozen duck may exceed expectations, and the probability of subsequent rise is high. At the same time, we expect that in the second half of the year, the company is expected to reduce the export proportion of duck seedlings and increase frozen duck sales, which will increase by more than 30% in the second half of the year.
To sum up, we expect the company's 18-year performance of 200 million yuan. Breeding: the company is expected to produce about 200 million ducks in 18 years, of which 100 million are exported and 90 million are slaughtered. It is estimated that the average annual profit per feather of duck seedlings is 1.15 yuan and the contribution profit is 115 million yuan. Frozen products: it is estimated to be about 260000 tons in 18 years, including 200000 tons of frozen ducks, with an average annual profit of 80 million yuan per ton of frozen ducks and 60, 000 tons of frozen chickens. Down: estimated 18-year income of 2 billion yuan, profit of 110 million yuan, and table 51%.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the company's annual income in 18-19-20 will be 5.608 billion yuan and net profit will be 2.02 billion yuan and 2.64 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 230.38%, 30.21% and 22.67% respectively over the same period last year.
Risk hints: duck prices rise less than expected, epidemic risk, product sales do not meet expectations