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合众思壮(002383)中报点评:高业绩增长超预期兑现 北斗民用龙头成长可期

中信建投證券 ·  Aug 17, 2018 00:00  · Researches

The incident company released its semi-annual report. In the first half of this year, it achieved revenue of 2,408 billion yuan, an increase of 278.34% over the previous year, and net profit to mother of 180 million yuan, an increase of 258.40% over the previous year. Brief review of the company's revenue and profit growth mainly comes from two parts: 1) Continued signing and confirmation of large orders for integrated communication services. Since adding integrated communication services last year, the company has signed a total of nearly 5 billion yuan of orders, confirmed 570 million yuan in 2017, and confirmed nearly 1.6 billion yuan in the first half of 2018. The period from order signing to product delivery is about 8-9 months. It is expected that subsequent large-scale integrated communication business orders will continue to be confirmed to support performance growth; 2) The high-precision business grew rapidly, with revenue of about 440 million yuan, an increase of 62.18% over the previous year. Among them, high-precision boards and antennas increased by 229.43%, measurement products increased by 61.67%, and precision agriculture increased by 43.56%. Furthermore, with the increase in scale and the maturity of autonomous boards, the gross margin of the high-precision business increased significantly, increasing by 2.85% over the previous year to 48.05%. 1) The revenue from the integrated communication business continues to be realized and contributed to profit growth. On the one hand, orders continued to be signed, and orders of more than 2.5 billion yuan were signed during the reporting period; on the other hand, last year plus the first half of this year, a total of nearly 2.2 billion yuan of orders were confirmed, forming a closed loop of capital return to ensure the smooth implementation of subsequent orders; it is expected that orders of 3 billion yuan will be confirmed throughout this year. 2) The mobile internet business declined 9.36% year over year, mainly due to the signing of an order for the Xueliang Project in Xinjiang last year. The external environment affected the pace of order confirmation, and it is expected that most of them will be confirmed in the second half of the year. The public security business has experienced the transformation from terminals to industry solutions. The business has matured, and the market development momentum is good. Looking at the whole year, it still supports the company's main profit. The company announced in June that within 6 months from June 20, some managers plan to increase their holdings by no less than 200 million yuan, demonstrating confidence in the company's long-term development and recognition of the company's stock investment value, and maintaining the stability of the capital market and the interests of the company's investors. I have been optimistic about the company's layout for a long time, and have strongly targeted overseas giant Trimble. With positioning technology as the core, the company has R&D and production capabilities in the entire industry chain from chips, antennas, boards, and terminals. Based on this, it continues to develop downstream vertical industry applications, the surveying and mapping business is growing rapidly, and precision agriculture and mechanical control are gradually breaking through front-end equipment. On the eve of explosive growth, the public security business is mature and has just exploded. The development trend of various businesses is good, and sustainable development is strong. Since the annual report in '17, the quarterly report for '18, and the semi-annual report for '18, the high performance growth has continued to be realized. Net profit for 18-19 is estimated to be 420 million yuan and 60 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to PE30X and 21X. At present, the key recommendations are the preferred targets for the left side. The risk indicates that the public security order confirmation did not meet expectations; the self-organized network order confirmation did not meet expectations.

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