Keystone

Recently, we have investigated the core channel vendors of the company, and the raw pulp in sub-high-end years showed explosive growth. By the end of July, the company had basically completed the sub-high-end sales task for the whole of last year.

The path of the company's new round of national expansion strategy is initially clear, the products take the sub-high-end year raw pulp as the core, take the lead in the layout of the provinces around Anhui, focusing on breaking through a single target province.

First of all, the year raw pulp brand will focus on the sub-high-end price, and the core products will be subdivided into three price bands of 230, 350 and 500 yuan in 8, 16 and 20 years, basically meeting the mainstream price belt demand of mass consumption upgrading. Strengthen the comprehensive dissemination of brand connotation, especially the promotion of eight famous wine genes in the whole country, and constantly improve the height of the brand.

Secondly, the packaging and wine quality are constantly upgraded to improve the performance-to-price ratio. On the basis of 100000 tons of base liquor production capacity, the company appropriately expands production, prolongs the storage cycle of base wine, constantly improves the brewing and blending technology, and continuously improves the wine quality and taste of vintage raw pulp.

Finally, national expansion is promoted to a strategic height, and flexible mechanisms and highly competitive remuneration packages are matched to fully release the enthusiasm and innovation of front-line marketing.

Point of view update:

As the first brand of secondary high-end in Anhui Province, the revenue of secondary high-end raw pulp is expected to reach 2 billion yuan in 2018, an increase of 65%, and will continue to grow at a high level, profoundly benefiting from the upgrading of liquor consumption in cities and developed counties throughout the province, and continue to strengthen its leading position in the province.

The secondary high-end raw pulp has enough room for growth in Anhui and its surrounding provinces and cities. The second-high-end price in Anhui is in the process of rapid expansion, which is about 2.7 billion yuan in 2017 and is conservatively expected to reach 9 billion yuan in 2021, with a compound growth rate of 35%. The provinces around Anhui are all major liquor consumption provinces, and the continuous upgrading trend is clear.

The expansion outside the province deserves continuous attention. In the current year, the brand height of raw pulp is not high enough to complete investment directly through the release of brand power, and the company still needs to promote brand communication and consumer cultivation through solid compound marketing projects, which Gujing is good at. However, the company is expected to have a more efficient and innovative channel expansion and management model.

Suggestion

The revenue forecast remains unchanged, but the sales cost of expansion outside the province is expected to increase, and the 19-year profit will be reduced by 1.6% to 2.2 billion yuan. Therefore, the 12-month target price will be slightly reduced by 3.1% to 127.6 yuan, corresponding to 18x1939max 29x Pmax E, and the current price corresponds to 18gamma 1923xPmax E. The target price has 66% room for increase.

Risk.

If the pace of expansion outside the province is too fast and the short-term investment is too large, the profit may not meet expectations.