[investment points]
According to the 2018 mid-term report of Lizhu Group, the company achieved operating income of 4.565 billion yuan, an increase of 6.78% over the same period last year, a net profit of 633 million yuan, an increase of 25.66% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 571 million yuan, an increase of 25.45% over the same period last year.
The main varieties of western medicine preparations, Liuprorelin and alprazole, maintain rapid growth and are expected to continue to provide greater support for the performance in the second half of the year. The company's income from western medicine preparation is 2.145 billion yuan, YOY+14.17%. Among them, leuprorelin microspheres in the field of gonadotropin contributed 359 million yuan (YOY+27.43%), and alprazole enteric-coated tablets in the digestive tract contributed 281 million yuan (YOY+34.49%). These two varieties made the greatest contribution to performance and maintained rapid growth.
In the second half of the year, these two varieties still have their own highlights: 1) Leuprorelin continues to strengthen its promotion, while the leuprorelin acetate microsphere for injection (sustained release for 3 months) project is in the clinical verification stage, and the new production line will remove the restriction on the production capacity of microspheres. Follow-up clinical sample production and amplification are expected to speed up. 2) due to price changes in bidding around the country, alprazole Q2 has declined compared with Q1. With the continuous promotion of injections into health insurance and hospitals, alprazole tablets and injections are expected to maintain a high growth rate of 50% for the whole year.
Shenqi Fuzheng revenue continues to decline, actively respond to strive to slow down the decline. Shenqi Fuzheng achieved revenue of 546 million yuan (YOY-34.66%) in the first half of the year, with an actual sales decline of 29.8%. The company responded actively, hoping to slow down the decline in sales of Shenqi Fuzheng, mainly taking two measures:
1) focus on the promotion of high volume in low-yield third-class and first-class hospitals; 2) the channel sinks to second-level and lower-level hospitals. At the same time, Shenqi Fu is conducting a phase I clinical trial in the United States, which is expected to be completed by the end of the year. The company intends to find a small indication to make a breakthrough at the point. In addition, due to the impact of price reduction and historical prices on Shenqi Fuzheng bottles, the company has different strategies for Shenqi Fuzheng bags. Soft bags have been shipped in mid-late August and priced separately in the high-end market.
A number of R & D projects are carried out at the same time, especially in the layout of biological drugs. The clinical progress of recombinant rhCG Ⅲ phase is smooth and is expected to be completed this year; recombinant TNF- α for injection is in phase Ⅱ clinical and good clinical data; recombinant human-mouse chimeric anti-CD20 monoclonal antibody is in phase I clinical trial. In addition, the clinical results of phase I of HER-2 appear to be safe, and the next step is to do the single-arm trial of Herceptin + pejeta+ docetaxel; PD-1 is basically completed in phase I of the United States, and the domestic phase I is progressing smoothly, and both monotherapy and combination are under consideration. In the next five years, the McAb project will be promoted from research and development to industrialization.
[investment advice]
It is estimated that the company's annual operating income in 18-19-20 is 94.69x10558xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
[risk Tip]
Sales of the products are not up to expectations.
The progress of research and development is not as expected.