Supply and demand are still tight, and the meat and duck industry continues to be booming. According to Waterfowl Network and Wind statistics, the average price of duck fry from January to July 2018 is 2.98 yuan per feather, up 93.4 percent from the same period last year, and the average price of hairy duck is 7.47 yuan per kilogram, up 23.9 percent from the same period last year. The average price of duck split products was 7714.85 yuan / ton, up 11.9% from the same period last year. The price of duck chain opened a new wave of rise in August 2018. as of August 5, 2018, the price of duck seedlings was 3.89 yuan, that of feathered ducks was 8.04 yuan per kilogram, and the average price of divided duck products was 8313.8 yuan per ton, up 28%, 3% and 0.3% respectively from the previous week. We calculate the average price: 2.45 yuan per feather in the first quarter and 3.37 yuan in the second quarter, the average price in the third quarter is expected to exceed 4 yuan per feather, the high point is expected to reach 5.5 yuan per feather, the price of frozen ducks is 9850 yuan / kg in the first quarter and 10300 yuan / kg in the second quarter. The average price in the third quarter is expected to reach 11000 yuan / kg. The company has fully benefited as the leader of the meat duck industry.
The prices of young ducks and meat ducks still have a lot of room to rise for three reasons: 1) the supply is in short supply, and the shortage of the commodity generation is expected to last at least until the first half of 19 years: environmental protection is the main reason for the sharp decline in production capacity of about 25% in the main meat duck producing areas. From May to June 2018, the central government launched environmental protection supervision and inspection "looking back", and the farm became the focus of regulation again. According to the statistics of the China Animal Husbandry Association, the production capacity of ancestral ducks dropped to 210000 sets in May from 240000 sets in April, and continued to drop to 200000 sets in June. The growth rate of parental generation stocks declined in the first half of the year, and the commodity generation is expected to be in short supply until at least the first half of 19 years. (2) boosted by demand, the third quarter has entered the peak season of traditional duck meat, and summer and autumn is the peak season of traditional duck meat consumption. In August 2017, the price of duck meat products once rose from 7575.4 yuan / ton on August 1, 2017 to 9538 yuan / ton on August 31, 2017. Considering that meat ducks are not affected by the recent epidemic, demand for meat ducks is likely to exceed expectations.
3) Duck, pig and chicken prices are linked, and the rapid rise in chicken and pig prices is expected to help duck prices rise. As of August 5, 2018, the average price of live pigs has exceeded 13 yuan / kg, close to 14 yuan / kg in some areas, up more than 13% month-on-month, and the average price of Shandong hairy chicken has exceeded 8.5 yuan / kg, rising by more than 6.25% month-on-month. The rise in pig and chicken prices will be a big driving force for duck prices to rise.
Increased management holdings show the company's confidence, and production capacity is expected to continue to expand.
On March 27, 2018, the company announced that managers plan to increase their holdings by not less than 100 million yuan from March 27 to September 26. The company announced on June 14, 2018 that the Henan provincial government agreed in principle that the total amount of funds (including issuance fees) raised by Huaying Agriculture through the non-public offering of A-shares on the securities market should not exceed 600 million RMB. It is used for the construction of three-dimensional ecological breeding of 22.86 million commercial ducks and annual processing of 30,000 tons of feathers.
We expect the company to achieve a performance of 200 million yuan in 18 years. Breeding: the company is expected to produce about 200 million ducks in 18 years, of which 100 million are exported and 90 million are slaughtered. It is estimated that the complete cost of raising duck seedlings is about 2.7 yuan per feather. Frozen products: about 270000 tons in 18 years, including 210000 tons of frozen ducks, about 9750 yuan / ton of frozen ducks and 60,000 tons of frozen chickens. Down: estimated income of 2 billion yuan in 18 years (Xintang Down), profit of 110 million yuan, and table 51%, with an estimated annual growth rate of 20% in the future.
Investment suggestion: we forecast that the company's annual income in 18-19-20 will be 5.608 billion, net profit 2.02 million, net profit 2.64 million, and EPS 0.38, 0.49 and 0.61 yuan, respectively, and continue to give "buy" investment rating.
Risk hint: duck price rise is not as expected, epidemic risk, trust plan forced closing position