Summary of this issue:
The company's performance is gradually picking up. The shareholding structure of Medica, the controlling shareholder of the company, has changed greatly, but the actual controller is still Mr. Shen Guangqian. The company maintained positive growth in operating income and net profit from listing to 2015, with a sharp decline in performance in 2016 and did not gradually recover until the third quarter of 2017.
The product line is rich, and the subsequent performance is expected to continue to grow. The company's existing product lines include biochemical diagnosis, chemiluminescence and coagulation diagnostics, which belong to several segments of the IVD market; molecular diagnostics and POCT business are the main development direction of the IVD industry in the future. (1) through the acquisition of Desai China, the company has improved its competitiveness in the field of biochemical diagnostics; (2) at present, the volume of chemiluminescence business is relatively small, and as the new product CI2000 is expected to be put on the market this year and the terminal academic promotion is effective, it is expected that the sales of chemiluminescence products will be greatly increased in the future. (3) at present, the company has two blood coagulation product registration certificates, and the hemagglutination business contributes little to the company's performance, and the hemagglutination analyzer CM4000 is expected to be listed this year; (4) set up a joint venture company with Enigma, Ingmar, to layout POCT and molecular diagnostics business.
The effect of channel integration is gradually released, and the performance picks up. From the perspective of the implementation of the national drug "two-vote system", it is imperative for all parts of the country to implement the "two-vote system" of consumables one after another. At present, some provinces have begun to pilot. In order to deal with the two-vote system in advance, the company integrates downstream channel dealers and sets up joint ventures with regional dealers; and actively explores new business models and cooperates with hospitals for centralized procurement of products. Mr. Zhang Haitao, the former marketing director of the company, once again served as the vice president of the company, responsible for sales work, which had a positive impact on the company's marketing.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we forecast that the company's operating income from 2018 to 2020 is 629 million yuan, 703 million yuan and 794 million yuan respectively; the net profit belonging to the shareholders of the listed company is 89 million yuan, 93 million yuan and 96 million yuan respectively; the diluted EPS is 0.21,0.22 and 0.23 yuan respectively; the price-to-earnings ratio PE is 29,27 and 27 times respectively. With reference to the average price-to-earnings ratio of the biochemical diagnostic industry, the company's 2018 price-to-earnings ratio is lower than the average of comparable companies, giving the company an "overweight" rating.
Stock price catalyst: new products are sold on the market, and the effect of channel integration is gradually released.
Risk factors: medical devices implement "two-vote system" risk, main business income concentration risk, chemiluminescence business volume is lower than expected, channel integration effect is not expected, 31.1325 million restricted shares are lifted, it is possible to reduce their holdings.
