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铁汉生态(300197)中报点评:Q2业绩明显提速 深度受益补短板&乡村振兴

國金證券 ·  Aug 7, 2018 00:00  · Researches

  Performance summary In 2018, H1 achieved revenue/performance/non-performance of 49/385/380 million yuan respectively, an increase of 77%/43%/47%. Business analysis Q2 performance accelerated markedly. 1) In 2018, H1 achieved revenue/performance of 49/385 billion yuan, respectively, an increase of 77%/43%. The performance growth rate lower than the revenue growth rate was mainly due to the equity incentive expenses accrued in the current period of 76 million yuan. Excluding the impact of equity incentive expenses, the 2018 H1 performance reached 448 million yuan, an increase of 66%. 2) Among them, Q1/Q2 achieved revenue of 1.3/36 billion yuan, an increase of 70%/79%, Q1/Q2 achieved performance of -0.7 2/457 million yuan, and Q2 performance increased by 67%. 3) By business, the company's H1 ecological environmental/municipal garden/ecotourism/design and maintenance business revenue reached 23/19/5/200 million yuan, and gross margin reached 27%/24%/25%/39%. Among them, ecological/municipal garden revenue increased by 148%/26%, gross margin changed +1.5pct/-2.3pct, and the ecological and environmental protection business grew rapidly. 4) The net cash flow from H1's operating activities was 100 million yuan, a decrease of 26%, and the revenue ratio decreased by 28 pct to 66%. More than 6 times the order revenue ratio plus the marginal improvement of macro-logic may promote accelerated financing to guarantee the company's future performance. 1) The amount of new contracts signed by H1 Company reached 11.6 billion yuan, an increase of 334%. The unfinished orders that have won bids reached 52.1 billion yuan, 6.4 times the revenue in 2017. 2) From a macro perspective, active fiscal policies to expand effective investment are continuing, and tight credit policies have been marginally improved. According to brokerage firm China, documents issued by the ICBC Corporation Department have clearly increased project reserves in infrastructure and other fields, and corporate project financing may accelerate in the second half of the year. The Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee at the end of July called for “increasing efforts to repair shortcomings in the infrastructure sector” and “implementing a good rural revitalization strategy.” We believe that ecological and environmental protection and rural revitalization are the main drivers for expanding domestic demand in the future. According to estimates, the market size of the garden industry reached 1.35 trillion yuan, and the funding support for precise poverty alleviation exceeded trillion yuan in 2018. As a leader in the garden industry, the company recently won bids for a number of “rural revitalization” projects (comprehensive urban and rural environmental management PPP project in Lushan County, Ya'an City (520 million yuan), the overall urban environment improvement PPP project in Tianzhu County (1.23 billion yuan)), Qiaojia County is expected to benefit deeply from rural infrastructure construction shortfalls village “Revitalization” strategy. The investment suggests that we maintain our previous performance forecast. We expect the company's 2018/2019 performance to be 12/18 billion yuan, EPS to be 0.53/0.79 yuan/share, and maintain the target price of 11.6 yuan (22*2018 EPS). Risk warning: The continued rise in interest rates has led to an increase in financing costs, and the implementation of PPP falls short of expectations.

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