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金地商置(00535.HK)点评:7月销售金额大幅增长

東吳證券 ·  Aug 6, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Incident, Jindi Commercial Investment announced operating data for July 2018: in July, it achieved contract sales of about 4.339 billion yuan, contract sales area of 153 million square meters, average sales price of 28,400 yuan/square meter; from January to July 2018, the company achieved cumulative contract sales of 20.306 billion yuan and a sales area of 889,500 square meters. The average sales price for reviews reached a record high, driving a 44% increase in sales in July. The company's contract sales in July were about 4.339 billion yuan, up 44% year on year; contract sales area was 153,000 square meters, down 12% year on year; average sales price was 28,400 yuan/square meter, up 63% year on year. In July, the company's marketing structure changed, and the average monthly sales price reached a record high, driving high sales growth. Judging from the cumulative data, from January to July 2018, the cumulative contract sales volume was 20.306 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21%; the cumulative contract sales area was 889,500 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 35%. There was little sellable value in the first half of 2018, resulting in a 29% year-on-year decline in the cumulative sales amount for the first half of the year. The year-on-year decline in cumulative sales after July narrowed by 8 percentage points. It is expected that the company's promotion pace will accelerate, and sales improvements can be expected. Land acquisition is more active, land reserves are abundant, and costs continue to be low. The company continues to focus on first-tier and second-tier popular cities. In 2017, 25 new projects were added in Beijing, Kunming, Kunshan, Jinan, Nanjing, etc., with a cumulative planned construction area of 4,061 million square meters, of which projects located in Beijing and Shanghai accounted for 14%; equity construction area was 1,878 million square meters; total land acquisition amount was 30.993 billion yuan, and the average purchase cost was 6,600 yuan/square meter, which was 36% of the average sales price at the end of 2017. In 2017, the company's land reserve construction area reached 13.71 million square meters, an increase of 104.29% over the previous year; among them, first-tier cities accounted for 21%, second-tier cities such as Changsha, Hangzhou, Kunming, Kunshan, Nanjing, Qingdao, Tianjin, and Wuhan accounted for 71%, and third-tier cities such as Huai'an, Taicang, and Taiyuan accounted for 8%. The owned property is located in a central location, and the rent is considerable. The investment properties owned by the company are located in the core area of the core city, and the high rental rate increases the company's rent scale. At the end of 2017, the occupancy rate of Shenzhen Weixin Software Technology Park Phase 1 and 2, Beijing Sohu Network Building, and Shanghai Bridge 8 projects all reached 100%. Currently, the commercial projects being developed are mainly located in five new business districts in cities such as Suzhou, Nanjing, and Shanghai. It is estimated that the rental income of the commercial real estate sector will exceed 1 billion yuan after completion. Investment suggestion: Jindi commercial land acquisition outlook, focusing on core Tier 1 and 2 cities. Land reserves are abundant and costs are low. Currently, the land reserve scale is close to 14 million square meters. The company's sales growth is expected to accelerate due to the promotion structure. At the same time, the company also holds a large number of high-quality properties in core cities, and also has a large number of properties under construction. Rental income will continue to rise in the future. We expect the company's EPS in 2018-2020 to be 0.19, 0.25, and 0.32 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 3.4, 2.6, and 2.1 times, respectively. Risk warning: industry sales fluctuations; business risks due to policy adjustments (shed reform, regulation, tax policies, etc.); changes in the financing environment (mortgages, development loans, interest rate adjustments, etc.); business operation risks (personnel changes, construction, land acquisition, etc.); exchange rate fluctuation risk.

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