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上海锦江国际酒店(02006.HK)

國泰君安國際 ·  Jul 27, 2018 00:00  · Researches

For the first time since 2010, the company achieved a positive adjusted annual net profit (RMB 289 million) in 2017. Although the company has recorded positive net profit over the past ten years, it has largely benefited from non-operating income and revenue. We believe that the company's acquisition of Keystone Hospitals (“Platinum Group”) and Vienna Hotels in 2016 fundamentally changed the company's business, so in the future, there is no need to rely on non-operating income and revenue as in the past to achieve operating profit. The hotels operated by Botao Group include all opened hotel chains under the brands “Lifeng,” “Zhefin,” “IU,” “Seven Days,” and “Pai”. The hotels operated by Vienna Hotel include brands such as “Venus Royal,” “Vienna International,” “Vienna Smart,” “Vienna Hotel,” and “Vienna 3 Good.” We reaffirm our investment rating for the “buy” of Jin Jiang Hotel, with a target price of HK$3.80. The company's current stock price is 7.1 times the 2018 EV/adjusted EBITDA, and there is a 53.2% discount on listed peers in Macau and the US. Our target price is equivalent to 8.0 times the 2018 EV/adjusted EBITDA and 19.6 times the 2018 price-earnings ratio. We also used the discounted cash flow method to cross-compare the target price. The target price was a 20.2% discount on the HK$4.76 per share valuation obtained from our discounted cash flow. We expect net profit for 2018-2020 to be RMB873 million, RMB1,012 million and RMB1,175 million respectively, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 15.6%. We forecast adjusted net profit for 2018-2020 to be RMB 379 million, RMB 513 million and RMB 667 million respectively, corresponding to a compound annual growth rate of 32.2%. We expect the adjusted net profit growth rate to exceed the net profit growth rate because the net contribution of non-operating income and earnings will decrease in the future and the share of net profit from the company's core operating activities will increase. We expect basic and fully diluted earnings per share for 2018-2020 to be RMB0.157, RMB0.182 and RMB0.211 respectively, equivalent to increases of 14.8%, 15.9% and 16.1%. In the first quarter of 2018, Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotel Development Co., Ltd. (600754/900934 CH, the “Subsidiary Company”), the company's main operating subsidiary, opened a total of 164 new hotels. The share of mid-range hotels increased 5.1 percentage points to 26.4% over the same period last year. In the first quarter, 258 new hotels were opened and 94 were closed, resulting in a net increase of 164 hotels. The number of directly-managed hotels decreased by 10 over the same period last year, and the number of hotel chains increased by 174. As of March 31, 2018, the subsidiary operated 6,858 hotels with a total of 667,875 hotel rooms, of which 26.4% were mid-range hotels, an increase of 21.4% over the previous year. Net revenue increased 14.5% year over year to RMB3.24 billion. In the first quarter of 2018, the company's average revenue per rentable room per hotel in mainland China increased 7.8% year on year because the average proportion of mid-range hotels with higher revenue per rental room increased 5.1 percentage points to 26.4% year on year. The average revenue per rentable room in the same mid-range hotel store increased 6.4% year on year, while the average revenue per rental room in the same budget hotel store increased by only 1.7% year on year. The performance of mid-range brands was significantly superior to that of budget hotels. The operating profit margin of subsidiaries increased 3.0 percentage points year over year to 3.4%. The total net revenue of subsidiaries in the first quarter of 2018 was RMB 3,236 billion, up 14.5% year on year. As operating profit margin increased 3.0 percentage points to 3.4% year on year, operating profit was RMB 109 million, up 946.4% year on year, much higher than expected. Benefiting from investment income, asset sales and other non-recurrent items, the subsidiary's net profit increased 15.8% year over year to RMB 230 million. Excluding net income from non-operating items, the subsidiary recorded a net loss of RMB 7 million.

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