The pressure of active inventory removal has led to a decline in the profitability of the industry, and the profitability of the heavy truck industry chain has been continuously verified.
According to the data of 141 A-share listed companies in the automobile industry, the operating income of the automobile industry in the past 18 years was 2.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.1% over the same period last year, and the net profit of the automobile industry was 84.67 billion yuan, down 25.6% from the same period last year. In the first quarter of 1919, the operating income of listed companies in the automobile industry reached 500 billion yuan, down 8.3% from the same period last year, and the net profit from the home was 21.17 billion yuan, down 30.0% from the same period last year. The revenue and performance of the automobile industry declined in the first quarter compared with the same period last year, mainly related to the decline in sales caused by the pressure of active destocking in the passenger car industry.
In terms of segments, the net profit of the whole vehicle sector in the first quarter decreased by 37.7% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to a 41.8% decline in passenger vehicle performance compared with the same period last year, while the performance of commercial trucks rose sharply by 518.9% compared with the same period last year.Fukuda MotorIt is related to turning losses into profits, and at the same timeChina heavy truckThe increase of 60.5% in net profit in the first quarter compared with the same period last year also made a positive contribution to the performance of the commercial truck sector. The homing net profit of auto parts fell 13.9% in the first quarter compared with the same period last year, in which the performance of core components was still outstanding. The net profit of homing in the first quarter increased by 18.1% compared with the same period last year, while the performance of non-core components decreased by 23.3%. If Weichai's parent company is excluded,Huayu Automobile、Fuyao Glass Industry Group、Weifu high-techFor several heavily weighted companies, first-quarter net profit on auto parts fell 19.1% from a year earlier. The profitability of the heavy truck industry chain continues to be verified. Sinotruk,Weichai PowerThe combined net profit of (parent company) and Weifu High Tech increased by 23.9% compared with the same period last year, significantly better than that of the automobile industry as a whole.
Analysis of profitability and operating capacity: the net operating cash flow of the automobile industry improved year on year after adjustment in the first quarter.
The pressure on the net interest rate of passenger cars affects the profitability of the industry: in the first quarter, the net interest rate of the automobile industry was 4.7%, down 1.5pct from the same period last year. Except for the core parts, commercial trucks and automobile service plates, the net interest rates of other sectors all declined compared with the same period last year. Passenger car sales are under pressure, and the pressure of voluntary destocking in the first quarter led to a decline in industry profits. in addition, the rising expense rate also has a certain impact.
The negative net cash flow of the automobile industry in the first quarter is a normal seasonal phenomenon: we measure the operating cash flow by the sum of the net operating cash flow and the added value of notes receivable. Excluding companies that have not disclosed the details of bills receivable, the adjusted net operating cash flow of the automobile industry in the first quarter of 1919 was-40.1 billion yuan, an increase of 2.8 billion yuan compared with the first quarter of 18 years.
Capital expenditure on passenger vehicles and commercial buses increased compared with the same period last year, while the pressure on capital expenditure on commercial trucks was small: in the first quarter, capital expenditure on passenger vehicles was 20.96 billion yuan, up 10.1 percent over the same period last year; capital expenditure on commercial trucks was 730 million yuan, down 40.5 percent over the same period last year; and capital expenditure on commercial buses was 340 million yuan, up 43.6 percent over the same period last year.
The decline of net profit rate of sales and asset turnover in the automobile industry in the first quarter led to a decline in ROE compared with the same period last year.
In the first quarter of 1919, the ROE of the automobile industry was 2.3%, down 1.0% from the same period last year. Affected by the decline in the net interest rate of sales and the turnover of total assets, we believe that the decline in the turnover of total assets in the automotive industry is related to the slowdown in the growth rate of operating income of the industry.
Investment suggestion
In the passenger car sector, we recommend stable performance, low valuation, high dividend yield, blue chip Huayu Automobile,SAIC GroupIt is recommended to pay attention toGuangzhou Automobile GroupThe automobile service sector suggests paying attention to automobile testing agencies.China Automobile Research InstituteHeavy truck stocks recommend Sinotruk, which relies on the new product cycle, future share or continuous improvement, to benefit from the increased penetration of heavy trucks with large displacement, the leading international Weichai Power and the undervalued high barrier, sound performance, dividend rate or promotion of Weifu High Tech B; parts plate recommends domestic automatic gearbox leaderWan LiyangDownstream customers have made a major breakthrough and are expected to meet the fundamental inflection point in 19 years; the commercial vehicle sector cautiously recommends Futian Motors, which may continue to adjust around the rising logic of ROE in the future.
Risk hint
The macro-economy is not as good as expected; the prosperity of the automobile industry is declining; and the policy promotion is not as strong as expected.