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金正大(002470)重大事项点评:政策助力土地托管 打开金丰放量空间

中信證券 ·  Jul 19, 2018 00:00  · Researches

  Matters: The Development and Reform Commission held a press conference on July 17, stating that the “Strategic Plan for Rural Revitalization (2018-2022)” has recently been issued and implemented by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council. Our comments on this are as follows: Comment: National policy support, land trusteeship is on the right track of development. Regarding this “Plan”, the Central Committee's document No. 1, “Opinions on Implementing the Rural Revitalization Strategy” issued in February, clearly states that it is necessary to improve the “separation of powers” system for rural contracted land. Rural contracted land management rights can finance and guarantee financial institutions and invest in shares to carry out agricultural industrialization operations in accordance with the law; cultivate and develop family farms, cooperatives, leading enterprises, social service organizations and agricultural industrialization consortia, and develop various forms of moderate scale management. Land trusteeship is currently the optimal solution for achieving large-scale production and solving “non-grainization” in China's agricultural modernization transformation. We believe that the official issuance of the “Plan” will pave the way for future land trusteeship development, and that the industry is on the right track of development, and the prospects are promising. The land hosts the trillion-dollar Blue Ocean Market and nurtures agricultural unicorns. According to our estimates, the total trusteeship market for grain crops exceeds 600 billion yuan, and the total trusteeship market for cash crops exceeds 1.5 trillion yuan. After the two are combined, the total market capacity of land trusteeship will exceed 2 trillion yuan. Each additional penetration rate of 1 pct can contribute 20 billion dollars to the enterprise's revenue scale. The industry is currently in the early stages of development. Its characteristics such as light assets, low cost, and flat channels determine that the model has the advantages of being easy to replicate and promote quickly. The attributes of the large volume and high growth rate of the industry provide a high-quality environment for nurturing and growing agricultural unicorns. Relying on the company's high-quality platform, “Jinfeng Commune” can be expected to expand. As a leading domestic new compound fertilizer enterprise, the company has a huge leading edge in technology, talent, capital, channels, and resource integration. In 2017, the “Jinfeng Commune” agricultural service platform initiated and controlled by the company relied on the land trusteeship model to provide a package of agricultural services to domestic planting farms, farmers' cooperatives, growers, etc. By the end of the first quarter of 2018, the number of county-level Jinfeng communes under construction and already built had reached 75, serving more than 1 million mu of land. The company's development goals for 18/19 were 150 and 300, respectively. We believe that with the support of the new policy and relying on the company's high-quality resources, Jinfeng Commune can be expected to achieve its goals and expand profits. Agricultural clothing feeds back traditional businesses and forms a synergistic effect. In an environment where the prosperity of the traditional agricultural industry is sluggish, on the one hand, the rapid expansion of the agricultural service business has created a new revenue structure for the company and provided growth points; on the other hand, it can incidentally bind agricultural product sales to feed back traditional business. The combination of agricultural service business and traditional business will bring synergies to enterprises and form new growth boosters. Risk factors: policy risk; risk of business promotion falling short of expectations; continued slump in agricultural product prices. Maintain a “buy” rating. We maintain the company's 2018-2020 EPS forecast at 0.35/0.48/0.63 yuan, maintain the target price at 17.5 yuan, and maintain the “buy” rating.

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