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北部湾旅(603869)公司更新报告:新管理层新气象 主营业务高速增长

國泰君安 ·  Jul 24, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Investment points: The target price is 30.6 yuan, maintaining an increase in holdings rating. In 2017, the tourism business had a lot of capital expenditure. The profit forecast was lowered. Net profit for 2018-2020 was 4.20/4.70/619 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 56%/12%/32%, corresponding to EPS of 1.21/1.35/1.77 yuan, and 2018/2019 EPS was reduced by 0.21/0.25 yuan, down 14.9%/15.6% respectively. The 2018 dynamic valuation is only 14.7xPE. The target price was lowered from 43.9 to 30.6 yuan, maintaining an increase in holdings rating. New leadership, new strategies, new mechanisms. ① The successor of the second generation born in '88 is expected to bring about improvements in the company's strategy and mechanism. ② Xinao Group, the majority shareholder, has a complete industrial layout and extensive government relationships in the energy and tourism business, which helps the company obtain more high-quality resources and projects for tourism and new intellectual awareness business. Xinzhi believes that the number of orders is growing steadily, and it is expected that it will continue to escalate and explode in the future. ① With technical advantages and shareholder support, we have achieved many achievements and large orders in traditional integrated business. It will continue to upgrade in the future and become a leading company in command and dispatch and big data analysis. It has a large market space and stronger profitability. ② Fully collaborate with the tourism business to enter the 70 billion smart tourism market. The travel route business completely reversed in 2018. ① The Beiwei route, which accounts for nearly 50% of gross profit, will maintain rapid growth (about 10%); ② the South China Sea route benefits from cruise ship upgrades and an improved competitive environment, and is expected to turn a loss into a profit in 2018; ③ the price of the Pengchang route was raised by 15 yuan in September 2017, and net profit will increase to about 20 million yuan in 2018. ④ Transfer the Red Water River, Yantai Kongtong Island, Qinhuangdao and sea tour projects that are in the cultivation period to reduce capital expenses. According to the company's announcement, it will contribute 123 million (before tax) investment income. Risk factors: weather factors affect route operations, order volume falls short of expectations, macroeconomic downturn.

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