Investment events:
2018 H1 performance forecast: estimated loss of about 93 million yuan-107 million yuan.
The transformation of business opportunities is delayed, the investment continues to increase, and the performance is temporarily at a loss. As the leading enterprise of medical insurance cost control in China, the main customers are medical insurance units at all levels. Due to the reform of state institutions, the Medical Insurance Bureau has been set up to plan and manage the insurance of NCMS, urban residents and urban workers as a whole. However, the institutional adjustment from the central to the local government takes time, which affects the e-government business of the company, the medical insurance fund and the Food and Drug Administration to a certain extent, and the delay in government procurement leads to the delay in the transformation of some business opportunities. as a result, the company's main revenue declined in the first half of 2018 compared with the same period last year. And the company continues to invest in consolidating the "five-in-one" business structure foundation of comprehensive medical insurance fund management services, health care big data services, pharmaceutical welfare management services (PBM), commercial health insurance third-party services (TPA) and medical artificial intelligence services, resulting in a significant increase in costs and expenses. The transformation of business opportunities is delayed, costs continue to increase, and the company's performance is in a state of loss for the time being.
The new model has been launched one after another, and the charging model has gradually become clear. During the reporting period, the company successively won the bid Quzhou Social Insurance Administration Bureau paid to purchase service items according to the disease grouping point method competitive negotiation project, the amount of 10.95 million yuan, service life of 5 years; Foshan medical insurance hospitalization expenses DRGs points payment method (point method) to implement the service project, the amount of 3.778 million yuan Guangzhou Medical Insurance Service Administration carried out the social medical insurance designated medical institutions declaration fee audit service project, the amount of 2 million yuan; Hubei Province medical service intelligent supervision platform city and county deployment project, the amount of 2.902 million yuan. The new model has landed one after another, and the profit model of the company is becoming clear gradually.
Card insurance payment side, cut into the medical health ecosystem, explore new profit growth points. In terms of medical insurance, the company has carried out 201medical insurance service projects in 23 provinces and 149overall planning units (8 provinces, 96 prefecture-level cities and 45 county-level cities); in terms of commercial insurance, the company has actively explored commercial health insurance third-party services (TPA) with the advantages accumulated in the medical insurance field. The company takes the payment side as the entrance, cuts into the health care ecosystem, and explores new profit growth points.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the company will have an "over-holding" rating of RMB 0.53 for EPS 0.02, 0.15, and 57.94 times for PE 1533.20, 210.16, in 2020.
Risk hint: business development is not as expected
