Event
On June 27, 2018, the company issued an executive change announcement. Mr. Cai Junbiao applied to resign as the general manager of the company and appointed him as the deputy general manager of the company. Mr. Niu Mingkui was appointed as the general manager of the company. Mr. Niu Mingkui was the vice president of the Automotive Department of Schaeffler Trading (Shanghai) Co., Ltd.
Brief comment
The former Schaeffler executive joined, the company's strength has greatly increased, business development will accelerate the company as a new energy vehicle motor leader, continue to achieve product upgrading and technology cross-domain. The product side has realized the upgrade from A00 class vehicle motor to A class vehicle motor, and entering Geely's supply chain is an important symbol of strength improvement. The technical end is equipped with the next generation of high barrier and cost-effective products such as flat wire motor and integrated system, and good results have been achieved. The company adheres to the development idea of technological innovation and cost optimization control, which is consistent with the current trend of industrial upgrading and subsidy retrograde. Mr. Niu Mingkui, the core figure of this change, was the Vice President of the Automotive Department of Schaeffler Trading (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., and the company appointed Mr. Niu Mingkui as General Manager. We believe that this will lay a solid foundation for the company's multi-faceted breakthrough in the integrated system business in the future, and the company's technical strength and management level are expected to reach a new level. We believe that the company is not only an electrical company, but will have a stronger say in the field of new energy vehicle drive system in the future, and the overall value of the company is expected to be revalued.
The turning point of new energy logistics vehicles has arrived, and the company, as the leader of logistics vehicles, is expected to benefit from the reduction of subsidies for new energy logistics vehicles from 60% of the transition period to 35% of 43%, and the industry has started again. From the perspective of the industry as a whole, according to the current annual sales of 100000 new energy logistics vehicles, the penetration rate is less than 5%, and there is huge room for development. From a policy point of view, in September 2017, 14 departments, including the Ministry of Communications, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, jointly issued the Action Plan for promoting the healthy and stable Development of Road Freight Transport Industry (2017-2020), pointing out that it is necessary to strengthen the technical management of urban distribution vehicles and facilitate the passage of new energy distribution vehicles that meet the standards. At the beginning of 2018, the State Council issued opinions on promoting the coordinated development of e-commerce and express logistics, pointing out that the field of express logistics should be encouraged to speed up the promotion of the use of new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles that meet higher emission standards. As the leader of new energy logistics vehicle assembly, the company will benefit from the huge development prospects of the industry and the arrival of the inflection point in the near future.
It is estimated that the operating income of the company from 2018 to 2020 is 17.1 yuan, 24.3 yuan and 3.09 billion yuan respectively, the net profit is 1.37,2.09 and 317 million yuan respectively, the EPS is 0.3,0.46 and 0.7 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 23.9x, 15.6x and 10.3x respectively. Maintain the "buy" rating, corresponding to the target price of 10 yuan.
Risk tips: (1) sales of new energy vehicles are not up to expectations; (2) excessive competition in the motor electric control industry.
